USDA raises US wheat 2020-21 ending stocks forecast, exports projections unchanged

New Delhi — The US Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for US wheat ending stocks in the 2020-21 marketing year (June-May) by 1.7% to 25.17 million mt (925 million bushels) from its May estimates, its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report showed June 11.

The projections were higher than the average trade expectations of 24.41 million mt, but still remain at a six-year low level.

The carryover stocks into the new marketing year stood at 26.75 million mt, slightly above average trade expectations.

US 2020-21 wheat supplies are up on a larger crop and a slight increase in beginning stocks, the USDA said.

At 13.88 million mt, the Hard Red Winter wheat contributed the biggest increase to the carryover stocks, while Hard Red Spring wheat stocks stood at 6.75 million mt.

The USDA kept the domestic use of wheat in 2020-21 unchanged from May estimates at 30.6 million mt. However, the wheat use is down 2.77% from 2019-20 levels, according to the data.

Meanwhile, the USDA expects 2020-21 wheat production at 51.08 million mt, 2.2% lower on the year.

WHEAT TRADE

The USDA expects US wheat exports for the 2020-21 marketing year at 25.85 million mt, unchanged from May estimates, but down from 26.26 million mt expected in 2019-20.

However, the US is expected to remain the world's third-largest wheat exporter after Russia and the EU, according to the data.

US wheat prices for most of the grades were lower since the end of April, mostly on expectations of a larger global wheat crop and generally better US winter wheat prospects, the USDA said in its World Markets and Trade report released June 11.

US HRW wheat with 11.5% protein declined $6/mt from April to $226/mt in May, according to data from the International Grains Council.

However, prices for HRS wheat increased $5/mt to $250/mt in May, supported by the lagging pace of spring wheat planting during much of the month as well as the slightly stronger pace of export sales, according to the USDA.