USDA maintains 2020-21 US corn output estimate, trims for 2019-20

New Delhi — The US Department of Agriculture has maintained its estimate for corn production in the US for the 2020-21 marketing year, which runs from September to August, at the record high estimated in May at 15.995 billion bushels, or 406.29 million mt, the agency said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report June 11.

The department also maintained US corn acreage and harvested area estimates for 2020-21 at 97 million acres, and 89.6 million acres, respectively, estimated earlier in May.

Year-end stocks for 2020-21 were raised to 3.323 billion bushels, compared to previously estimated 3.318 billion bushels. The estimated ending stocks were up 1.22 billion bushels from last year's levels, and the highest since 1987-88.

The yield projection for 2020-21 US corn was maintained at 178.5 bushels/acre.

Total corn supplies in the US in 2020-21 was raised to 18.123 billion bushels, from a previous forecast of 18.118 billion bushels, the USDA said. The record high supplies can be attributed to a rise in beginning stocks for 2020-21 to 2.103 billion bushels in June, from 2.098 billion bushels in May.

Beginning stocks for 2020-21 were raised due to a reduction in projected corn used for ethanol in 2019-20, USDA said.

For 2020-21, estimates for corn used for ethanol in the US were maintained at 5.2 billion bushels.

Corn exports estimates were also maintained at 2.15 billion bushels seen in May.

The season average farm price for US corn in 2020-21 was maintained at $3.20/bu estimated in May, which is the lowest since 2006-07.

Estimates for 2019-20

The USDA lowered estimates for corn production in the US in 2019-20 to 13.617 billion bushels from 13.663 billion bushels.

The agency also lowered its estimates for corn used for ethanol in the US for the 2019-20 marketing year to 4.90 billion bushels from 4.95 billion bushels estimated earlier.

It raised its US corn ending stocks estimates for 2019-20 to 2.103 billion bushels from 2.098 billion bushels projected in May.

The estimate for corn for feed and residual in the US was maintained at 5.70 billion bushels estimated in May.

The USDA also maintained its estimate for US corn exports in 2019-20 at 1.775 billion bushels projected in May.

The agency's estimate for corn acreage in 2019-20 was kept unchanged at 89.7 million acres, while the harvested acres estimate was trimmed to 81.3 million acres from 81.4 million acres in May.

The estimated yield for US corn in 2019-20 was also trimmed to 167.40 bu/acre from 167.80 bu/acre.

Global corn largely steady

The USDA raised global corn production estimates for 2020-21 slightly to 1.188 billion mt in June, from 1.186 billion mt, previously forecast in May. For 2019-20, global corn production is estimated at 1.11 billion mt.

Global corn production is expected to grow in 2020-21 as major producers such as the US, Brazil and Ukraine are likely to harvest a bumper crop, USDA said.

The USDA raised Brazil's corn production estimates in June to a record 107 million mt for 2020-21, from previously estimated 106 million mt.

Corn production estimates in Ukraine and Argentina, other major corn producers were maintained at 39 million mt, and 50 million mt in 2020-21 seen in May.

Brazil's corn exports estimates for 2020-21 were lowered to 38 million mt from the previous estimate of 39 million mt, the report said.

Corn export estimates from Argentina and Ukraine for 2020-21 were maintained at the May forecasts of 33 million mt, and 34 million mt, respectively.

Global corn imports estimates in June were raised slightly to 176.56 million mt for 2020-21 from previous estimates of 176.21 million mt.

Global corn ending stock estimate was lowered in June to 337.87 million mt, from 339.62 million mt seen in May.