Argentina's advance soybean sales slump 46% raising supply concerns

Advance sales of Argentina's soybean crop stood at 403,300 mt as of June 2 for the 2022-23 marketing year (April 2023-March 2024), down 45.76% year on year, according to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries on June 8.

New weekly soybean crop sales were at 85,900 mt in the week ended June 2, falling by more than 32% year on year.

The export of raw soybeans and related derivatives from the leading exporter could tighten over the coming weeks as there are concerns of beans hoarding by farmers in anticipation of better price discovery going forward, market sources said. This comes amid a slow planting pace in the US, which could lead to tighter future supplies.

Furthermore, the soaring price of diesel, used in raw bean crushing, along with slow sales are raising concerns about supply and prices of raw beans derivatives.

However, the Argentinian soybean output for crop year 2021-22 (November 2021-October 2022) has been revised up to 43.5 million mt from previous estimates of 42 million mt on improved yield prospects, the ministry said on May 23.

As the beans harvest progressed, the yields obtained improved, with the agriculture ministry estimating a national average value of 3.02 mt/hectare.

However, Argentina's 2021-22 soybean output is still expected to remain well below last year's 46 million mt.

The country's soy crop was battered by La Nina-led dry weather and heat during the crop maturation stage in January and February. As a result, the yield was expected to plummet below 2.75 mt/ha, but the rainy weather in March resulted in a nationwide crop yield recovery.

Platts Analytics has forecast Argentinian soybean output in 2021-22 at 43.5 million mt.

Argentina is the world's third-largest producer and exporter of raw soybeans. It is also the biggest shipper of soybean meal and oil.