USDA sees Australian, Russian wheat production falling on year in 2021-22

Wheat production in Australia and Russia -- leading producers and exporters globally -- is likely to fall in the 2021-22 marketing year, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

Australia is expected to produce 27 million mt of wheat in 2021-22 (October-September), lower than the 33 million mt of estimated production for 2020-21, the USDA said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report May 12.

Russia, the world's largest wheat producer and exporter, is expected to produce 85 million mt of wheat in 2021-22 (July-June), slightly lower year on year. For 2020-21, Russia is expected to produce 85.35 million mt wheat.

Meanwhile, wheat production in the EU is likely to jump 6.4% on the year in 2021-22 (July-June) to 134 million mt, the report said.

Argentina, another major exporter of wheat, is expected to produce 20.5 million mt in 2021-22 (December-November), higher than the 17.63 million mt expected for 2020-21.

For Ukraine, the USDA estimated 2021-22 (July-June) wheat production at 29 million mt, up from 25.42 million mt expected for 2020-21.

US' production in 2021-22 (June-May) is also likely to rise to 50.95 million mt from 49.69 million mt seen for 2020-21, the USDA said.

Total world wheat production is seen at 788.98 million mt for 2021-22, higher than the estimate of 776.10 million mt for 2020-21.

World wheat ending stock for 2021-22 is seen at 294.96 million mt, compared with 294.67 million mt estimated for 2020-21.

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Australia's wheat export is seen at 20 million mt, down from 22 million mt in 2020-21.

Russia, despite lower production estimates, is expected to export 40 million mt of wheat compared with 39.5 million mt in 2020-21.

EU's wheat exports are seen rising to 33 million mt in 2020-21 from 30 million mt in 2020-21.

Ukraine's wheat export may rise to 20 million mt in 2021-22, from 17 million mt the previous year, while Argentina's export may rise to 13.5 million mt in 2021-22, from 10.5 million mt the previous year, the USDA said.

Wheat exports from the US in 2021-22 are seen falling to 24.49 million mt, from 26.26 million mt last year.

On imports, China is likely to import 10 million mt wheat in 2021-22, down from 10.5 million mt the previous year. However, wheat imports into Southeast Asia are seen rising 6% on the year to 26.3 million mt, from 24.8 million mt in 2020-21, the report said.