US corn output, ending stocks forecast to rise in 2021-22: WASDE

The US Department of Agriculture sees US corn production in the 2021-22 marketing year (September-August) at 14.99 billion bushels, up from 14.182 billion bu estimated for the 2020-21 marketing year, its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates showed May 12.

"Corn production is seen higher from last year on higher area and a return to trend yield," the USDA said.

USDA released its first look for the 2021-22 supply and demand estimates for US corn in the report.

The yield projection for 2021-22 US corn is at 179.5 bu/acre. "The yield projection is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing-season weather," the USDA said.

Year-end stocks for 2021-22 are estimated at 1.507 billion bu, up 250 million bu from last year's levels, the USDA said. "With total US corn supply rising and use declining, 2021-22 US ending stocks are higher on the year."

Total US corn use in 2021-22 is forecast to decline from year-ago levels as greater domestic use is more than offset by lower exports, USDA said. It sees total corn usage in 2021-22 at 14.765 billion bu, lower than 14.87 billion bu estimated for 2020-21.

Corn exports from the US in 2021-22 are forecast at 2.45 billion bu, down 25 million bu on the year, the USDA said. "A 335 million bu increase in the combined corn exports for Ukraine and Russia in 2021-22 is expected to increase competition for the US, reducing the forecast US share of global corn trade from a year ago," the USDA report said.

Corn used for ethanol in the US in 2021-22 is projected to increase on expectations of higher US motor gasoline consumption, the USDA said. It estimates the figure to be at 5.2 billion bushels for 2021-22, above the 4.975 billion bu seen last year.

The department has maintained US corn acreage estimates for 2021-22 at 91.1 million acres, seen earlier in the USDA's prospective planting report in March. The harvested area for 2021-22 is also maintained at 83.5 million acres.

The season-average farm price for US corn in 2021-22 is projected at $5.70/bushel, $1.35 above 2020-21, USDA said.

2020-21 export estimates revised higher

The USDA raised its estimate for US corn exports in 2020-21 to 2.775 billion bu from 2.675 billion bu projected in April. "Starting in 2020-21, exports sales and shipments in corn reached 100% of the World Agriculture Outlook Board's 2.675 billion bu April number. This would suggest yet another hike is coming in May," S&P Global Platts Analytics said in its WASDE preview report May 11.

USDA lowered its 2020-21 US corn ending stocks estimates to 1.257 billion bushels from 1.352 billion bushels projected in April.

The estimate for total corn usage in the US rose slightly to 14.87 billion bushels from the 14.77 billion bushels estimated in April.

The agency raised the season-average farm price for US corn in 2020-21 to $4.35/bushel, slightly above the $4.30/bu seen earlier, USDA said.