IGC projects 2022-23 global grain output down 12 mil mt at 2.28 billion mt

The International Grains Council has projected global grains output to decline by 12 million mt to 2.275 billion mt in marketing year 2022-23 (April-March) due to a likely decline in production in the Black Sea region particularly in the backdrop of Russia-Ukraine war.

The council has also projected a lower grains trade for MY 2022-23 at 407 million mt, against 416 million mt seen for MY 2021-22.

The IGC in its April update, however, increased its estimates for global grains consumption by 21 million mt to 2.302 billion mt.

It has reduced its estimate for global grain ending stocks to 581 million mt for MY 2022-23 from 608 million mt MY 2021-22.

For corn, the IGC has reduced its estimate for global output by 13 million mt, to 1.197 billion mt from the previous year.

Corn trade estimates were reduced by 4 million mt to 171 million mt for MY 2022-23. The IGC also reduced the carryover stocks projection for 2022-23 to 265 million mt to 286 million mt, but it increased the forecast for corn consumption by 17 million mt to 1.218 billion mt for MY 2022-23.

Global wheat output estimates were kept largely steady at 780 million mt for MY 2022-23 against 781 million mt for the previous year. It has also maintained global wheat trade estimate at 193 million mt for MY 2022-23.

It reduced its projection for global wheat consumption to 775 million mt for MY 2022-23 from 785 million mt seen for last year. It has also reduced its projection for global carryover stocks to 277 million mt for MY 2022-23 from 282 million mt in the previous year.

For rice, production estimates were increased to 520 million mt for MY 2022-23 from 515 million mt seen in MY 2021-22, the council said.

Its global rice consumption estimate increased by 3 million mt to 517 million mt for MY 2022-23 while the global rice trade forecast fell slightly by 1 million mt to 50 million mt.

The forecast for global soybean production in 2021-22 was increased to 383 million mt for MY 2022-22 from 349 million mt, the IGC said.

The IGC also increased the estimate for global soybean consumption to 373 million mt in MY 2022-22 from 360 million mt seen in MY 2021-22. It has also increased its trade projection to 166 million mt for MY 2022-23 from 155 million mt.

Global carryover stocks estimates for soybean were increased to 54 million mt from 44 million mt seen last year.