USDA sees China's 2020-21 domestic feed wheat usage rising to record 40 mil mt

The US Department of Agriculture raised China's 2020-21 wheat feed and residual use by 5 million mt to a record 40 million mt, according the agency's April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released April 9.

"Auction sales of China's old-crop wheat stocks continue to be large and domestic corn prices in China remain at a premium to wheat. This is expected to further increase China's 2020-21 wheat feed and residual use," the report said.

Wheat ending stocks in China are expected to decline for the first time in eight years in 2020-21, USDA said. It sees China's 2020-21 wheat ending stocks at 145.43 million mt, lower than the 150.43 million mt estimated previously.

Wheat import estimate into China for 2020-21, however, have been kept steady at 10.5 million mt, USDA said.

Russia/Argentina wheat

The USDA raised Russia's 2020-21 wheat export estimate to 39.5 million mt, up from 39 million mt seen in March.

Russia has imposed a floating tax on its wheat and other grain exports which starts on June 2, adding to trade measures taken earlier, including an export quota and taxes that came into effect from Feb. 15, and will run through June 30.

Despite the imposition of the tax, USDA sees wheat exports from the country rising as Russia's monthly exports continue to be large and prices remain competitive internationally, the USDA said.

Wheat export estimate from EU+UK also increased 500,000-27.5 million mt, on a stronger than expected pace, it said.

In Argentina, wheat production in 2020-21 is estimated at 17.63 million mt, higher than the 17.2 million mt estimated earlier, the USDA said. Ending stocks in the country for 2020-21 are also seen rising to 1.61 million mt, from 1.38 million mt in March.

US and global wheat

In the US, wheat ending stocks for 2020-21 are revised up to 23.18 million mt from 22.76 million mt in March.

Wheat consumption estimate for 2020-21 are lowered to 30.69 million mt from 31.38 million mt previously, while feed and residual use for wheat is also seen falling to 2.72 million mt, from 3.4 million mt, the USDA said.

Global wheat consumption estimate for 2020-21 is increased 5.1 million mt to 781 million mt, mainly on higher feed and residual use for China, USDA said.

Projected 2020-21 global trade is raised 1.2 million mt to a record 198.9 million mt, mostly on higher exports by Russia and the EU+UK, it said.

Projected 2020-21 world ending stocks are lowered 5.7 million mt to 295.5 million mt with China accounting for most of the reduction, USDA said.