USDA lowers 2020-21 US corn ending stocks to seven-year low of 1.352 billion bushels

The US Department of Agriculture has estimated lower ending stocks for US corn in 2020-21 (September-August), resulting from higher usage and higher exports during the marketing year, it said in its April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report April 9.

For 2020-21 marketing year, the USDA lowered US corn ending stocks estimate by 150 million bushels to 1.352 billion bushels in April—the lowest after 2013.

Though historically April WASDE is not much of a market mover, analysts this time were expecting changes to the US corn ending stocks and exports due to higher demand and export sales from the US. The average trade estimate for 2020-21 US corn year-end stock was at 1.396 billion bushels, higher than USDA's estimate. S&P Global Platts Analytics estimated US 2020-21 corn year-end stocks at 1.35 billion bushels, it said in a recent report.

The USDA raised the total US corn consumption estimate to 14.77 billion bushels from 14.625 billion bushels.

The estimate for US feed and residual use was raised by 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion bushels, while corn used for ethanol estimate was also raised by 25 million bushels to 4.975 billion bushels, USDA said.

Corn export estimate for 2020-21 was raised by 75 million bushels from the previous estimate to 2.675 billion bushels in April. Platts Analytics expected the USDA to raise US corn export estimates by 100 million bushels, the report said.

The season-average corn price was maintained at $4.30/bushel for 2020-21.

Followed soon after a bullish prospective plantings report, the April WASDE fueled sentiment in the corn market and sent corn futures prices to the highest since September 2013.

The most active May futures contract on the Chicago Board of Trade touched $5.95/bu following the report, up nearly 16 cents/bu from the previous close.

The USDA in its Prospective Plantings report estimates US corn acreage for 2021-22 at 91.1 million acres, lower than the USDA's February Outlook Forum forecast of 92 million acres, and also lower than the average analyst estimates of 93.2 million acres.

Further estimates for the 2021-22 marketing year will be incorporated in USDA's May WASDE report.

Globally, the corn ending-stocks projection has been cut to 283.85 million mt for 2020-21 from 287.67 million mt forecast in March, the USDA said.