US soybean 2020-21 ending stocks steady on March estimates

New Delhi — The US Department of Agriculture's US soybean ending stocks forecast for the 2020-21 marketing year (September-August) held steady on March estimates at 120 million bushels, the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report released April 9 showed.

The forecast was unchanged on lower crushing projections and residual use, according to the report.

The USDA projected US soybeans exports for 2020-21 to reach 2.28 billion bushels, up 30 million bushels on March estimates, mainly reflecting record exports through the first half of the marketing year.

The soybean crush was revised down 10 million bushels on previous estimates to 2.19 billion bushels on a lower domestic soybean meal disappearance forecast and a higher projected extraction rate, the USDA said.

The latest US soybean ending stocks forecast was 1 million bushels higher than the average analyst estimate at 119 million bushels, but in line with S&P Global Platts Analytics' forecast of 120 million bushels.

The USDA kept the rest of the parameters unchanged month on month.

Harvest area, production steady

Area harvested and soybeans production forecasts were kept steady at 82.3 million acres and 4.135 billion bushels, respectively, according to the report.

The 2020-21 US season-average soybean price was projected at $11.25/bu, up 10 cents from March's forecast, the USDA said. The soybean meal price was held steady at $400/st. However, the soybean oil price forecast was up 4 cents from the previous estimate at 45 cents/lb.

Global outlook

US soybean futures prices shed 10 cents/bu immediately after the release of the WASDE report to $14.0362/bu at 1616 GMT April 9, as the USDA's unchanged ending stock projection for US soybeans, coupled with an upward revision of Brazilian soybean output by 2 million mt on a higher yield trend to a record 136 million mt,, surprised market analysts.

Favorable crop conditions in Brazil's southern state of Rio Grande do Sul and updated harvest results from national and state agencies support higher yields, the USDA said.

Analysts were expecting an increase of only 0.03 million mt in Brazilian soybean production for 2020-21 to 134.03 million mt because of delayed planting and uneven rainfall during the fourth quarter of 2020.

Argentina's soybean production forecast was steady on a previous estimate at 47.5 million mt, the USDA said, while market analysts were expecting a cut of almost 1 million mt in the projection.

Brazil, US and Argentina are the top soybean producers and jointly account for over 90% of global soy supply.