USDA sees MY 2022-23 US corn acreage below previous estimates, soybean higher

The US corn acreage for the 2022-23 marketing year (September-August) has been estimated at 89.5 million acres, down 4% on the year while soybean acreage is seen at a record 91 million acres, up 4% on the year, the US Department of Agriculture said in its Prospective Plantings report March 31.

The acreage estimates for corn are also lower than the USDA's February Outlook Forum forecast of 92 million acres, while soybean acreage numbers are higher than the forum's estimate of 88 million acres.

The prospective plantings report is a survey-based estimates of US farmers' growing intentions for the MY 2022-23.

The average analyst estimate for corn was also similar to USDA's previous estimate of 92 million acres for MY 2022-23 and for soybean it was at 88.73 million acres.

Historically, this would be the third time when soybean acres in the US are estimated to exceed corn acres.

According to the USDA, the area under corn in MY 2022-23 is expected to be up or unchanged in 43 of the 48 estimating states. In the largest corn-producing states of Iowa and Illinois, corn acreage is 2021 is seen falling on the year by 2% and 3% to 12.6 million acres and 10.7 million acres, respectively.

"Acreage decreases from last year of 200,000 or more are expected in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and Wisconsin," said the USDA.

For soybeans, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 24 of the 29 estimating states. Soybean acres are projected to be the largest in Illinois with 11 million acres, up 3.7% from 2021, followed by Iowa with 10.4 million acres, up 2.9% on the year, and Minnesota with 8 million acres, up 4.5% year on year.

"Increases of 250,000 acres or more are anticipated in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Tennessee. If realized, the planted area in Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin will be the largest on record," according to the USDA.

S&P Global Commodity Insights has estimated a 3 million acre shift away from corn to soybeans in the US with both corn and soybean acreage at around 90 million acres in the MY 2022-23 due to persistent high fertilizer costs.

Fertilizer prices have been historically high in the US, as well as globally. Farmers are likely to have favored soybean planting in the US as soybean is a less-fertilizer intensive crop compared to corn—which is highly fertilizer intensive.

"As fertilizer prices soared to round out 2021 and into 2022, there were estimates that acreage would shift toward soybeans. Analyst have also estimated that more acres would not necessarily translate into bumper supplies as they probably wouldn't be high-quality acres," an US-based analyst said.

US corn and soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade reacted after the release of the report.

The most-active, May futures contract of corn on the CBOT gained nearly 34 cents/bushel after the report to touch $7.69/bu. The contract later eased and was seen trading at $7.52/bu at 1643 GMT.

The soybean May contract, however, shed nearly 55 cents/bu after the release of the report and was trading at $16.23/bu at 1650 GMT.