Influx of feed demand casts uncertain outlook for low-quality white rice market

The influx of demand from feed buyers in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised numerous questions over the direction of the Asian low-quality white rice market.

While commercial feed demand in recent years has been dominated by corn and wheat, Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 led to price spikes for both products. It has also led to increasing concern about global exportable supplies, with the Black Sea region one of the major origins for these products.

However, demand from feed buyers is not new.

According to Shirley Mustafa of the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization, this has been emerging for some time. "Use of rice for feed has been rising since 2020-21, after reaching a seven-year low the year prior," Mustafa told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"Rice use for animal feed [aside from bran] is usually limited and confined to backyard operations since the commercial feed sector usually has more economically viable alternatives than rice. However, gains in wheat and maize prices over the past year-and-a-half or so, driven by these commodities' own domestic and international market dynamics, have tended to narrow price differentials with rice [especially broken rice]."

In China, for example, these shifting dynamics were directly linked to 2021 rice imports rising by 69% year on year to 4.96 million mt, according to data from Chinese customs, with the world's largest exporter -- India -- emerging to satisfy this huge volume of broken rice demand.

Rice markets react

But the demand from feed buyers has spiked in both India and other Asian rice markets since the Ukraine conflict began. In India, for example, sources have reported instances of defaulting and low supplies, with one Kakinada-based exporter going so far as to describe the local broken rice market as a "disaster" due to the sudden influx of demand.

In rice export origins which are also destination markets for corn and/or wheat, such as Vietnam, many exporters have withdrawn their broken rice offers due to high domestic demand. Vietnamese 100% broken white rice price has increased by $65/mt since the invasion of Ukraine, reaching a high of $370/mt FOB on March 25, according to Platts assessment from S&P Global. However, many sources view broken rice prices from Vietnam as hypothetical, with the country even importing substantial volumes from India to meet demand.

In traditional broken rice markets -- notably in West Africa -- the situation is more immediately concerning from a food security perspective. In Senegal, which is a huge market for broken rice for human consumption, a sizable gap is opening up between current retail prices and replacement costs. While in part this is due to Senegal's new retail price cap and high freight rates, the significant rise in Indian broken rice prices in recent weeks has only served to widen this gap.

According to one Europe-based trader who buys for the country, this gap has reached $90/mt in recent days, and made it "impossible" to buy for Senegal at present without taking on huge financial risks. However, with sufficient stocks in Dakar for Ramadan and the following weeks, the trader added that it makes no sense to re-enter the market before the religious holiday is over, with hopes that the replacement cost gap will have narrowed in the interim.

Unusual price spreads

Because of the massive influx in demand for Asian broken rice, unusual price spreads between different rice grades have emerged. Pakistani 5% and 100% broken white rice were briefly assessed at par earlier in March while the gap was $70/mt a year prior. The spread between Thai 5% and A1 Super 100% broken white rice has narrowed to only $2/mt in recent days, compared to $51/mt a year prior.

One major Singapore-based rice trader said that "some 25% [broken white rice] shipments for feed purposes" was seen from Myanmar to Europe. Sources buying from the Myanmar market have reported that offers of low-quality B234 broken white rice have been largely unavailable in recent weeks due to high feed demand, with higher quality broken rice prices also moving up substantially.

Despite sources reporting no obvious reason for why feed buyers could not turn to 25% broken white rice if 100% broken white rice was unavailable, or priced uncompetitively, sales of this product for feed purposes so far remain rare. A second Singapore-based trader said that they were advising their traditional broken rice buyers in Africa to accept 25% broken white rice due to supply and price issues for 100% broken white rice. However, the first Singapore-based trader cautioned that this would ultimately "depend on corn prices."

FAO's Shirley Mustafa agreed, saying that "because this trend is influenced by factors outside of rice markets, developments in these external markets will have an important bearing." Mustafa added that "current forecasts suggest record-breaking supply availabilities in the major exporters this season, thanks to bumper harvests expected in India, Pakistan and Thailand. If these are realized, they should be more than sufficient to cater to the higher global needs."

Outside forces

Despite uncertainty surrounding how this situation will play out, it is almost inevitable that feed demand will take up an unusually large portion of international rice sales in 2022. A third Singapore-based trader said that it will "not be a huge chunk ... But it will not be insignificant either."

The questions which remain at this point are whether 25% broken white rice sales for feed will become more widespread and how this demand for cheap rice will impact traditional buyers of 25% and 100% broken white rice for human consumption. However, with rice still a minor player in the massive global feed market, the situation will ultimately remain at the mercy of outside forces.