USDA keeps US wheat estimates unchanged from February; virus weighs on prices

The US Department of Agriculture kept US wheat ending stock estimates for the 2019-20 marketing year (June-May) unchanged from February at 25.58 million mt (940 million bushels), according to its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Tuesday.

The USDA also kept US wheat exports for the 2019-20 marketing year unchanged from February at 27.22 million mt.

According to the latest USDA export sales report, total commitments of the US wheat in the current marketing year already stand at 23.18 million mt, up 2.7% on the year.

With three months left of the marketing year, total commitments now represent 85.2% of the USDA's total export estimates for 2019-20. Total commitments point to cumulative exports plus outstanding sales seen in a year.

With that volume, the US will remain as the world's third-largest wheat exporter after Russia and the EU.

The US is expected to produce 52.25 million mt of wheat in 2019-20, also unchanged from February estimates, according to the WASDE report.

In 2019-20, the US is expected to experience a year-on-year production fall in Hard Red Spring, Soft Red Winter and Durum wheat, while an increase of 5.44 million mt is estimated for Hard Red Winter wheat grade, the USDA said.

The USDA's US wheat estimates for exports, production and ending stocks were broadly in line with market expectations.

CORONAVIRUS WEIGHS ON PRICES

Against the backdrop of the growing impact of coronavirus on other markets and competitive pricing, prices of all US wheat grades were down in February, the USDA said in a separate World Markets and Trade report released Tuesday.

At the end of February, US HRW wheat dropped $8 to $222/mt, while SRW fell $13 to $239/mt.

The US HRW with 11.5% protein was seen at premium over the EU and Russian wheat, with the EU – France grade 1 wheat, FOB Rouen pegged at $209/mt, and Russian milling wheat at $214/mt at the end of February, according to data from the International Grains Council.

The most active US wheat futures trading on the Chicago Board of Trade were 0.38% down from a previous close of $5.20/bu as of 11:30 am CT on Tuesday.

Markets look oversold, and with the assumption of the virus continuing to spread in the US, futures could eventually trend even lower, analysts say.

So far, there has been a concentration of coronavirus cases in the US states of Washington, California and New York.

In the US, more than 750 people have tested positive for the virus, with 26 deaths reported so far.