US soybeans output, exports forecast to rise in 2022-23: USDA

US soybean production and exports in the 2022-23 marketing year (September-August) are seen to rise on the year on higher acreage and supplies, respectively, the US Department of Agriculture said in its Grains and Oilseeds Outlook Feb. 24.

Soybean production is projected at 4.5 billion bushels (122.5 million mt), up 1% year on year, with an 1% higher on-the-year planted acreage of 88 million acres accounting for most of the increase, the USDA said.

The US soybean yield is expected to largely remain steady on the year at 51.5 bushels/acre, compared with 51.4 bushels/acre last year, the report said.

Soybean exports were also seen soaring in 2022-23.

US soybean exports for 2022-23 are projected at 2.15 billion bushels (51.5 million mt), up 100 million bushels from the 2021-22 forecast, the USDA said.

US exports are expected to be relatively strong through the first half of the marketing year with the current drought in South America limiting its exportable supplies this fall. However, with a higher South American harvest expected in early-2023, export competition in the second half of the marketing year will likely limit additional US gains, it said.

US soybean crush is projected to rise for the second year in a row to a record 2.25 billion bushels (61.2 million mt), largely driven by growing domestic demand for soybean oil and supported by meal demand growth, the USDA said.

Since early-2021, tight global vegetable oil supplies and increasing demand for biofuel feedstocks in the US have led to higher soybean oil prices and increased the demand for crush, the USDA said.

The trend is expected to continue into 2022-23, with the planned expansion of renewable diesel capacity to meet federal and state biofuel mandates.

"Competition for biofuel feedstocks as new renewable diesel producers enter the market will support soybean oil prices and lead to lower soybean oil for methyl ester and food, feed, and other industrial uses," the USDA said.