Infographic: Russia vs Australia: A zero-sum game in the Asian wheat market?

Australia appears to be the only player pricing into the Asian wheat market as Russia loses its competitive edge due to export restrictions.

Russia's move to protect its domestic wheat supply amid the global pandemic has pushed its prices to more than six-year highs. At the same time, the La Nina weather phenomenon has had opposite impact on the northern and southern hemispheres, with Australia producing a record crop while the Black Sea grapples with dry conditions. The two factors combined have paved the way for Australia to ride on the Russian price rally instead of facing downward harvest pressure.

Consequently, the price spread between Australian APW and Russian 12.5% wheat has flipped to negative for the first time since S&P Global Platts launched the Russian assessment in March 2014.

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