USDA hikes 2021-22 wheat exports estimates, cuts output projections

The US Department of Agriculture increased its estimate for global wheat exports in marketing year 2021-22 to 206.7 million mt, against 204.4 million mt, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Feb. 9.

The rise in the export estimates is primarily due to an increase in projections for Argentina, India and Canada.

The USDA increased its view for India wheat exports to 7 million mt in MY 2021-22 from 5.25 million mt pegged last month. According to the report, Canada's wheat exports were seen at 15.2 million mt, up from 15 million mt seen in January.

It also increased its estimate for Argentina's wheat exports to 14 million mt, from 13.5 million mt projected in its January report.

An increase in India and Argentina's wheat export estimates are significant as they have emerged as major players amid global supply tightness.

However, the USDA reduced its estimate for wheat exports from US and Ukraine. For US, it estimated wheat exports in MY 2021-22 at 22 million mt, down from 22.5 million mt seen in January. It reduced its estimate for Ukraine's wheat exports to 24 million mt from 24.2 million mt seen a month ago.

A decline in Ukraine's wheat exports was primarily due to port closures amid adverse weather and rising tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

Production, ending stocks seen declining

The global wheat output was seen declining by over 2 million mt to 778.6 million mt in MY 2021-22, the USDA report said.

The output was seen dropping due to slight fall in production in the UK, Brazil, and Kazakhstan, the report added.

However, it maintained its projections for wheat output in Argentina, Russia, Ukraine, Canada, and Australia.

The USDA also increased its estimate for global wheat consumption in MY 2021-22 to 788.1 million mt from 787.5 million mt seen a month ago.

The agency expects global feed usage to increase 1 million mt to 160.7 million mt in MY 2021-22.

Amid the increase in consumption and a decline in output, the USDA reduced its estimate for global wheat ending stocks to 278.2 million mt from 280 million mt seen last month.