El Nino condition starts to decline, may dissipate over next few months: BOM

The El Nino phenomenon has started to weaken, indicating that the condition may dissipate over the next few months, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said Jan. 24.

"El Nino has peaked and is declining, indicating a return to neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024 (March-June)," the bureau said.

An El Nino event increases the likelihood of wetter conditions in East Africa and East Asia and drier conditions, including drought, in West Africa, southern Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Australia, northern areas of South America and Central America.

The current El Nino condition had a significant impact on agricultural production Australia and parts of Asia.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics has forecast wheat harvest for marketing year 2023-24 (October-September) at around 26.2 million mt, down 34% year on year, which was expected to weigh on exports.

ABARES projected Australia to export 20.4 million mt in MY 2023-24, down 36% year on year.

Palm oil production from Malaysia and Indonesia, which accounts for about 85% of the world's supply of tropical oil, may register negligible gains in 2024 as dry weather and a lack of new plantations cap chances of supply growth, according to a wide section of the industry.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed FOB Australian Premium White wheat at $286/mt on Jan. 23.