USDA raises 2022-23 global wheat output projection slightly to 781.3 mil mt

The US Department of Agriculture has raised its forecast for global wheat output in marketing year 2022-23 (July-June) to 781.31 million mt from 780.59 million mt previously, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report showed Jan. 12.

The increase in its global forecast was due to slightly higher expectations for the harvests in Ukraine and the EU compared with its December report.

The USDA raised its forecast for Ukraine's wheat output during MY 2022-23 to 21.0 million mt in its January report, up from a 20.5 million mt forecast in its December report.

For the EU, output is seen rising to 134.7 million mt, up 400,000 mt from the previous estimate.

The forecast for Argentina's wheat output in MY 2022-23 was maintained at 12.5 million mt, as was Canada's at 33.82 million mt.

Also unchanged were projections for Australian wheat output at 36.6 million mt, Russia's at 91.0 million mt, and the US at 44.9 million mt.

The USDA raised its expectations for MY 2022-23 ending stocks to 268.39 million mt, up from 267.33 million mt seen earlier.

Exports seen rising

The USDA raised its projection for global wheat exports to 211.62 million mt in the January update, from 210.85 million mt a month ago, with higher estimates for the EU and Ukraine.

For the EU, the agency now expects exports at 36.5 million mt, up from 36 million mt a month ago.

It forecasts Ukraine's wheat exports at 13.0 million mt against 12.5 million mt in its December update.

Australia's wheat exports are still seen at 27.5 million mt, with Russia's also unchanged at 43.0 million mt and Argentina's steady at 7.5 million mt.

However, it cut its forecast for Indian exports to 5.90 million mt from 6.25 million mt.

The agency lifted its global wheat imports forecast to 205.05 million mt, from 204.30 million mt previously.

The USDA slightly raised global wheat consumption projection for MY 2022-23 to 789.74 million mt, from 789.53 million mt.