US steel scrap falters, but mills returning to market could create a floor

It may not seem like it, but the US domestic ferrous scrap industry is in the midst of one of the biggest bull markets this decade.

Scrap prices trended up $25/lt during the March buy week, up $50/lt during the April buy week and up $20/lt during the May buy week.

That is three consecutive up markets--the first time that has happened since 2010. Four consecutive up markets has yet to happen in the 2010s. Nobody seems to be betting on that drought coming to an end as export pressures cloud the June outlook.

It was actually an export sale that helped ignite the May scrap market, firm prices and get some mills off the sideline. On May 4 a US bulk shipper achieved $330/mt CFR Turkey HMS 80:20 basis on a sale to Turkey. The sale was a coup for the exporter, having achieved a $17.50/mt premium over the prior US bulk sale and a $50/mt premium over its own previous sale from four weeks prior.

That bulk export sale enticed at least one mill buyer to return to his office, delay Cinco de Mayo festivities, and begin purchasing May scrap before more bulk sales followed.

Those sales still have not materialized. It has officially been two weeks since that bulk sale and not another US-Turkey deal has been made.

Live by the export, die by the export. US scrap suppliers lived by it during the bull markets of March, April and May. They are now at the mercy of it, as downward pressure related to export softness mounts for June

Mills are posturing to return scrap prices to April levels. However, emboldened by electric-arc furnace flat-rolled demand for scrap, they are not likely to return their increasing steel prices to April levels.