Aluminum, gasoline, jet fuel prices post double-digit gains in Trump era: Of Presidents and Prices

With President Donald Trump imposing tariffs on aluminum and steel imports last month, his taking a tougher stand on trade overall, and the US general economy growing at a healthy clip, several key commodity prices were considerably stronger on average through the end of March, compared with on January 19, 2017, the day before his inauguration.

Eight of the 11 commodity benchmark, running-average prices being tracked by S&P Global Platts since Trump took the oath of office were up, led by aluminum (the US premium for Midwest delivery, +12.6%) Chicago gasoline (+12.5%), and jet fuel (+10%).

Dated Brent crude’s running average during the Trump era was $56.82/b for the January 20, 2017, through March 31, 2018, period, compared with $53.31/b on January 19 a year ago, an increase of 6.6%. New York Harbor fuel oil’s running average was $49.51/b for the same period, up 5.3% from the January 19, 2017, mark of $47.03.

Gold, up 6.8% to a running average of $1,298.73/oz since January 19, 2017, is likely benefiting from investors who see it as a safe haven compared with recent stock market volatility.

But the running average prices of natural gas (-7.1%), thermal coal (-5.4%) and global iron ore (-11.3%) remain lower than on President Barack Obama’s last day on the job.

For steel, US-made hot-rolled coil is now averaging 3.3% higher (at $650.74/st) for the Trump era, driven in recent weeks to levels not seen in more than seven years by tariff fears and strong fundamentals.

Platts has been monitoring this group of 11 price benchmarks and comparing them in Trump’s term to date versus Obama’s eight years in office — although fundamentals and a range of other factors influence commodity prices.