For US airline industry, a penny saved on jet fuel is $180 million earned

— I flew two different airlines last week. Both were packed.

Despite Ebola fears. Despite high ticket prices. Despite a slowing global economy. Despite high jet fuel prices.

Wait. Scratch that last one.

Spot market jet fuel prices have plunged as much as 50 cents below the 2014 average.

And for US airlines, a penny saved is, well, much more than a penny earned.

A 1-cent decline over one year's time saves the industry $180 million. That would make it $9 billion total, if the spot jet market held 50 cents lower than expected over a year's span.

Platts on October 20 assessed the benchmark Gulf Coast -- where half the US jet fuel is produced -- at an outright price of $2.4061 per gallon. That's more than 43 cents below the 2014 average of $2.84/gal. It dipped to $2.3861/gal on October 15, the lowest mark since December 1, 2010.

New York barges slipped to $2.4531/gal, 46 cents below its 2014 average. On October 15, they were 50 cents below. Chicago jet was the highest due to refinery issues, at $2.6131/gal, 36 cents below average.

Industry group Airlines for America has provided that estimate about that 1-cent change in jet fuel costs over a year's span means a $180 million change in US airline costs. For the world's three biggest airlines -- American, United and Delta -- it's about $40 million each for every cent.

Airline analysts are increasingly factoring in lower costs as the entire global oil complex continues to weaken.

"Since the selloff in crude prices, we have been lowering our estimates for jet fuel costs," Cowen and Co. analyst Helane Becker said in a report October 20. "Even so, we still believe there is further downside to jet fuel costs."

She said Ebola fears have had little effect on air travel bookings, but added that US airlines have continued to hang on to capacity discipline seen since the recession.

A US jet fuel supplier said macro issues like slowing global economies and the Ebola crisis will be a "drag on the benefits of low fuel" for airlines, who may also just pass those fuel savings along in the form of lower ticket prices.

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Delta Air Lines has the most flights of any US airline to Africa, but reported no real effect on bookings as it started the airline earnings season last week. It said it paid $2.90/gal for jet fuel in the third quarter and expected to pay $2.69-2.74/gal in the fourth quarter. Those costs include taxes and logistics.

Delta also focused on an emerging industry capacity trend that won't create much fuel demand: refleeting. The airline said it retired two dozen 50-seat planes and replaced them with bigger ones, a strategy that generated 2% more domestic capacity in 2014 on 4.5% fewer departures.

Even with bigger planes and poor headlines, Delta reported a load factor -- how packed are the planes -- slightly higher to 86.4%.

Other airlines are expected to report much the same. As can I. I didn't fly Delta, but those other airlines were loaded.