With the final launch of the space shuttle Endeavour, NASA's experiment with reusable space vehicles is drawing to a close. Far from heralding an end to an era, however, the withdrawal of the space shuttle is acting as a catalyst to a new generation of space vehicles, with some aiming for that hitherto elusive goal of commercial space travel. And jet fuel could yet play a part in the first small steps towards taking the common man to the stars.
Growth is a key element in any healthy market and for the oil and commodity markets, the growth in Asia has gone a long way toward sexing up the solid, if unspectacular, growth seen in established North American and European markets.
We stand at a turning point in the development of global markets, however. Asia, once spoken of in hushed tones as that fabled Eldorado -- the new market -- is realizing its potential. By 2016, according to the IMF, China's economy could surpass the US.
For jet fuel, eye-popping statistics of Asian growth, growth and more growth have supercharged order books for the major aircraft makers, bolstered China's position as one of the world's big jet fuel importers and is poised to drive passenger demand to 3.3 billion by 2014, according to IATA.
Which begs the question... where next? For those in the oil industry, growing demand and new markets are often blunted by the improved efficiencies of new engines and designs, something particularly true of the current generation of commercial aircraft. So, looking beyond Asia, where are the new growth markets for jet fuel?
There is an opportunity in the offing that is out of this world. Quite literally. OK, so in terms of actual consumption of fuels, it's almost a footnote to a footnote, but it's poised to become a growth market and you know how rare one of those could be.
On May 16, NASA launched its penultimate space shuttle mission. The Endeavour's squat form took off from Kennedy Space Center in a blaze of fire, steam and raw power. The final mission of the orbiter Atlantis, now slated to go for launch in early July, will bring down the curtain on the reusable orbiter era after 30 inspiring years.
From then on, the US and NASA will be without a vehicle capable of carrying its astronauts into space.
As is the way of the nation that put men on the moon, this is not an end. It is a new beginning, and appears to be ushering us ever closer to an age where space travel is as routine as air travel.
Along with it, there comes a break from the staple rocket fuels--the potent space shuttle diet of liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen is out--and a quest for cheaper and more amenable alternatives is underway. And that includes kerosene.
Perhaps the highest profile in the new generation of star chasers is reserved for Virgin Galactic. Upstart offshoot of established airline Virgin Atlantic, and brainchild of bearded-wunderkind Sir Richard Branson, the modestly named company intends to fly paying customers into low earth orbit in the not-too-distant future from its Mojave Spaceport base in the California desert.
To boldly go where but a handful of people have gone before, the space vehicle itself, currently testing under the name SpaceShip2, is reliant upon a mothership: WhiteKnightTwo.
It isn't rocket science. WhiteKnightTwo burns standard jet A1 kerosene in its four Pratt & Whitney turbofans and the concept itself, once trialed and proven, could easily lend itself to heavier loads.
"WK2 has a unique high altitude heavy lift capability as well as being an aerobatic aircraft and although has been specifically designed to carry SS2 to altitude, it does not take a great stretch in the imagination to see that it potentially could have additional uses," Stephen Attenborough of Virgin Galactic told Platts.
Air launch, carrying the space vehicle to high altitude then bascially dropping it and hoping its rocket engines kick in, is safer, far more energy efficient and a key plank in the Virgin Galactic concept. It's also where NACA, the fledgling predecessor to NASA, set out on the path to the moon by dropping Chuck Yeager in the supersonic X-1.
"We believe the concept can and will offer a viable alternative to conventional ground-based thinking, first for manned sub-orbital but potentially also for delivering people and payload into orbit and beyond," Attenborough added.
Although many of the projects are at the earliest of design stages, it's fair to say they are not alone. Reaction Engines is another UK-based entity that's looking for backing for its own concept starplane. Although its Sabre engine is not kerosene consuming, the Skylon aircraft it will be attached to will be air-breathing in the earth's orbit, like a standard aircraft, before switching to something a little bit more meaty and suited to space propulsion once it passes into space.
And, it could take off and land from a regular commercial airport, the very epitome of budget space travel. (Ok, so it might need a 5km runway to get airborne, something that currently only three commercial airports actually have.)
The Netherlands boasts another embryonic project which describes its concept as a vehicle that "will seat one pilot plus five customers when flying space tourism flights. For research purposes the four rear seats are removed and replaced with experiment racks or other payloads." Which sort of makes it sound like you're going into space in a minivan. How much more common man can you get?
Many of the US-based projects are still a little fixated on the conventional capsule-atop-giant-firework approach, but even here jet fuel could play a role. The first stage of the mighty Saturn V rocket that thundered those with the right stuff to infinity and beyond actually used a combination of liquid oxygen and an even-more-refined version of jet fuel known as RP-1.
Russian Soyuz and Chinese Shenzhou rockets already use the same combination, along with the new Atlas V rockets now shouldering much of NASA's satellite work.
BlueOrigin, a company that recently secured substantial funding from NASA, is also looking at a part kerosene-fueled rocket project that aims to provide "the public with opportunities to experience spaceflight."
But it feels a little 20th Century, somehow. The Buck-Rogers vision of the future, with the dream of 'budget airline' access to space, is likely to be defined by space vehicles that look and act more like aircraft.
In that vision of the future, jet fuel could yet play a part in exploring strange new worlds.. to seek out new life and new civilizations... to... to... oh, beam me up Scotty.
Live long and prosper.
