98 is the number to remember for US gasoline in the 2020s

Gasoline and ethanol are joined at the hip. They're like lamb and mint. Macklemore and Ryan Lewis. Frodo and Gollum.

And nope, you are not going to get me to say which one is Gollum.

What I will say is that I, as a gasoline editor, do not feel like the enemy here (as some have suggested) at the National Ethanol Conference in New Orleans, where Platts is one of dozens of sponsors and where the big talk this week is how to get octane of gasoline up near 100 at the pump. (You know octane from the little yellow sticker that says "R+M" on it. You probably buy gasoline at 87, 89, 91, 92 or 93 octane.)

Octane helps your engine resist knock, the tiny explosions happening nowhere near where they are supposed to happen in your car. (1) Knock, knock. (2) Who's there? (3) Engine. (4) Engine who? (5) This isn't a joke. It really is your engine. Start buying the right gasoline.

Anyway, I'm just here for the octane. Researchers from Ford and the US Department of Energy and a longtime consultant on fuel economy talked Tuesday morning at the Hyatt Regency about the march toward higher-octane gasoline and the cars that will burn them. Also on the table: how much of that gasoline will be comprised of ethanol beyond the 10% seen in most US markets today.

Deep thoughts needed.

"Some deep thought is needed on flex-fuel vehicles and higher octane," said Dave Hirshfeld of the two-person MathPro Inc. energy consulting shop in Washington, D.C.

Ethanol cares about this because ethanol, at 113 octane, is a great way to get your octane level higher. It's the double-shot latte of the gasoline blend. But our biofuels analyst — Jordan Godwin, the guy who asked me if I felt like the enemy — said ethanol's contribution to fuel economy is a bit sketchy. That is for another blog post and points to a broad issue that Godwin told me this morning that not many here in New Orleans are talking about.

The consensus at the panel is that 98 octane is the best target for US gasoline, and Hirshfeld said it would take about eight years to get there if there is political willpower to get it done. The next president no doubt will have something to say.

Gasoline at 98 octane probably would cost 15 cents/gal more than gasoline at 92 octane, researchers said.

Tom Leone, Ford automotive fuels researcher and the most optimistic member of Tuesday's three-person panel, said he foresees a day when 98 octane gasoline is the US standard, like 87 octane is today for regular gasoline. He said Ford is interested in building cars that use the gasoline of the people, as it were — the most widely available fuel.

"We can deliver a vehicle that runs on any kind of fuel. But we need to know what that fuel will be," he said.

Beyond 98 octane gasoline lies the "octane frontier," Hirshfeld said. Those gasolines would require more and more ethanol and likely would not be viable in the market.

Leone said premium gasoline today, the fuel at 91 octane and up, is more of a marketing concept than an economic need. Buying premium gasoline delivers 1% to 2% better fuel economy but that gasoline typically costs 10% more, Leone said. Few are willing to pay that beyond owners of sports cars and luxury sedans.

So what next? Getting the various interests in the octane debate to agree may be as complicated as, say, organizing a nude opera.

Outlandish ideas are likely be proposed. Leone said one rejected technology involved a car where the driver had to fill two tanks with different gasolines. And fuel standards will draw political scrutiny.

"No one likes to be regulated," Leone said.

But he said there are "societal gains" to be found in higher-octane gasolines, particularly in fuel economy. "It is hard to see market forces alone getting us there," he said.