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ECONOMICS COMMENTARY
Apr 26, 2019
Week Ahead Economic Review: Week of 29 April 2019
- Worldwide PMI surveys
- US employment report
- US and UK central bank meetings
- Eurozone, Hong Kong and Korea GDP
The turn of the month always sees a hectic economic calendar, and the coming week is even busier than usual.
The release of worldwide PMI surveys will be eyed for signs that the manufacturing slowdown is bottoming out after March's JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI, compiled by IHS Markit, held steady at 50.6. The number of countries that reported a deterioration or stagnation of manufacturing also remained steady at 13 out of the total of 30, but crucially business improved in China. April's data will provide especially important clues as to whether China's recent stimulus is helping the economy, in turn boosting global trade.
The outlook for trade and tariffs, blamed by many manufacturers for weakened business conditions in recent months, will also be in focus as the US and China restart trade discussions.
The PMIs will also be scoured for insights into whether the manufacturing slowdown has spread to services: March data saw the gap between the two sectors running at one of the largest in survey history, but flash PMI data for the US and Eurozone hinted at weakened service sector growth rates (read more here).
Markets will also be keeping a focus on the US, in a week which sees the FOMC meet amid PMI surveys and the monthly employment report. The Fed is widely expected to keep policy on hold, though markets will be eager to see how the outlook for growth and inflation has changed, with widespread expectations of an increasingly dovish stance (more on page 3).
Bank of England policymakers also meet, though are expected to once again sit on their hands as Brexit uncertainties continue to cloud the outlook. The Inflation Report will nonetheless hopefully help guide policy options in the event of differing Brexit outcomes.
Other key data releases include Eurozone GDP and inflation data, plus GDP for Hong Kong and Korea.
Our special report this week looks at the economic prospects for the Philippines (see page 6).
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- Asia Pacific Special Report
Contact us
Contact for further APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or Bernard Aw
Contact for European and US PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
© 2019, IHS Markit Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
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