Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 22 April 2019

• US first quarter GDP
• Bank of Japan policy meeting and key data updates
• Euro area sentiment indicators
• Russia, Sweden and Indonesia central bank meetings

With increasing attention being focused on the US Federal Reserve, the advance estimate of first quarter GDP will be one of the major data releases for the week. Initial low nowcast estimates have gradually edged higher, such that IHS Markit's tracker produced by the team at Macroeconomic Advisers now points to 2.4%, which is in line with the signal from the PMI surveys. Such robust growth calls into question the recent dovish twist by the Fed, but big doubts persist over whether growth will fade, especially as manufacturing (often a lead indicator of the wider economy) has slipped into contraction amid trade war worries.

The impact of trade wars will also be searched for in other releases such as South Korea's GDP, Japan's manufacturing production and Taiwan's export orders.

Industrial production numbers in Japan are accompanied by updated retail sales statistics, and preceded by the latest Bank of Japan policy meeting. Japan's policymakers face a dilemma whereby it is feared that ultra-loose policy, including negative interest rates, are damaging the functioning of the financial sector. The policy response will be eagerly awaited, especially as central banks in other slowing economies, notably the Eurozone, will be equally mindful to gauge how policy can be successfully simulated without doing more harm than good.

With economic forecasts for the euro area tending to be revised lower, economic sentiment surveys will be scoured for further clues as to whether the recent soft patch has persisted into the second quarter.

Other central bank policy meetings include Russia, Sweden and Indonesia.

Our special report this week looks at the economic outlook for Indonesia, which is set to become one of the developing world's largest consumer markets.

Download the report for the full content which includes:

1. Global overview
2. Key diary events
3. US week ahead
4. Europe week ahead
5. Asia Pacific week ahead
6. Asia Pacific Special Report

Contact

Contact for further APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or Bernard Aw

Contact for European and US PMI commentary: Chris Williamson

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.