Fastest rise in global export orders in over four years

The worldwide Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence indicated that global trade returned to growth midway through the first quarter. The seasonally adjusted Global PMI New Export Orders, sponsored by J.P.Morgan and compiled by S&P Global, rose above the 50.0 neutral mark for the first time in nearly a year. Moreover, at 51.2 in February, up from 49.7 in January, the latest reading was the highest since November 2021. The latest data therefore signalled the fastest rise in new export orders in over four years. However, it should be noted that this snapshot was taken ahead of recent developments including the eruption of war in the Middle East and, to a large degree, the US Supreme Court decision on US tariffs.

Renewal of trade growth across both manufacturing and service sectors

The seasonally adjusted PMI New Export Orders Index for the manufacturing sector rose to the joint-highest since July 2021 (matched also by November 2021), simultaneously indicating the first expansion in global goods export orders in nearly a year. This improvement in goods trade unfolded against a backdrop of booming manufacturing sector conditions as the headline global manufacturing PMI climbed to a near four-year high in February. Manufacturing output growth was notably stronger in Asia, particularly in ASEAN, and in Europe, but softened in North America partly due to extreme weather. Similarly for new export orders, the Asia-Pacific region saw goods exports expand at the quickest rate since mid-2010 just as the decline in Europe eased to a marginal level while North America's contraction deepened.

The latest acceleration in manufacturing sector activity growth was accompanied by improvements in sentiment among goods producers, though we must highlight that the data were collected ahead of the latest escalation of conflict in the Middle East and absent any impact from the US Supreme Court decision on tariffs. Overall optimism among manufacturers was at the highest since mid-2024, reflecting a positive attitude towards further expansions in output just prior to the unfolding of the war in the Middle East. As such, the latest data revealed that global trade was resilient in February, though upcoming March data will offer better insights into changes in demand, price and sentiment conditions following the unfolding of these key events at the end of February.

Services exports meanwhile expanded globally for the first time in three months. Although marginal, the rate of growth was the quickest since November 2024. Similar to the manufacturing sector trend, services activity rose at a solid pace that was the fastest in four months, driven by stronger demand compared to the start of the year.

Detailed sector PMI revealed that manufacturing sectors took over the lead for global export growth midway through the first quarter. The best performers were the Beverage & Food and Technology Equipment sectors, followed by Banks. Automobile & Auto Parts was also notably in the top five. On the other hand, Tourism & Recreation, Forestry & Paper Products and Other (non-bank) Financials ranked last.

Emerging market new export business rises solidly while developed economies near-stabilises

Emerging markets were the main engine behind the latest acceleration in global new export orders growth. Expanding for a second successive month, the rate at which new business increased was the fastest since August 2017. This was attributed to improvements in both the manufacturing and service sectors, with the former leading growth at a solid pace.

In contrast, developed markets again reported lower new export business in February, though the rate of decline was only marginal. The reduction in new export orders remained broad-based, albeit with goods new export orders falling only fractionally and the rate of services contraction easing to the least pronounced pace in nearly a year.

Number of top ten trading economies in expansion remains at five

By countries, the number of top ten trading economies recording higher goods exports remained at five in February, unchanged from those reporting improved trade at the start of 2026, again dominated by APAC economies. Notably, mainland China took over in first place, displacing India from the lead for the first time in 16 months. Mainland China's goods export orders rose at the most pronounced pace since September 2020, which helped to support the strongest improvement in manufacturing sector conditions in over five years. Japan also saw a charge-up of its export growth momentum citing improved demand from Europe and other Asian economies.

In contrast, India's manufacturing new export orders rose at the slowest pace in 17 months, though overall growth remained supported by stronger domestic demand in February. Export gains were also reported in South Korea and the UK.

On the other hand, America economies - Brazil, Canada and the US - were the weakest performers in February, with tariffs continuing to impact goods trade and production to varying degrees. Marginal reductions in goods export orders were meanwhile also observed for Russia and the EU.

Access the global press release here.

Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director, S&P Global Market Intelligence

jingyi.pan@spglobal.com

Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI^®) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.