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ECONOMICS COMMENTARY
Dec 09, 2014
Markit economic overview
The following is an extract from Markit's monthly economic overview. For the full report please click the link at the bottom of the article.
Global economic growth hits seven-month low in November
Markit's worldwide PMI surveys signalled the weakest expansion for seven months in November. The JPMorgan Global PMI fell from 53.5 to 53.2, consistent with global growth of only just over 2% per annum. However, divergent growth trends remained. The US and UK markedly outperformed all other major economies, with the rest of the world registering only modest growth on average.
Global PMI and economic growth
Sources: Markit, JPMorgan, HSBC
US and UK v rest of world
Sources: Markit, ISM (US ISM data pre - Oct '09 (Services), pre - Feb'10 (Manufacturing))
US job boom continues, but PMI surveys hint at slower growth
After enjoying above-trend growth in Q2 and Q3, PMI data suggest the US economy has slowed in Q4, with annualised economic growth looking to have eased from 3.9% in Q3 to 2.5%. Growth remained strong enough to support strong job creation, however, the latter confirmed by a consensus-beating 321,000 non-farm payrolls rise in November. The buoyant jobs report adds to the likelihood of Fed tightening policy in mid-2015.
US economic growth (GDP v PMI)*
* pre-crisis PMI uses manufacturing data only
US labour market
UK set for weaker, but still robust, economic growth in Q4
The UK 'all sector' PMI partially recovered from October's 16-month low of 56.4 in November, but so far the surveys are pointing to GDP growth of 0.6% in Q4, down from 0.7% in the third quarter. Faster growth in services was offset by slower growth in construction and manufacturing, the latter having moved down a gear compared to earlier in the year due mainly to weaker demand in overseas markets such as the eurozone.
UK economic growth (GDP v PMI)
Output by sector
Use the download link below to access a full overview of the November PMI surveys, including details of all major economies, policy implications and the market impact.
Chris Williamson | Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit
Tel: +44 20 7260 2329
chris.williamson@ihsmarkit.com
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