Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 4 October 2021

The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

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Worldwide services PMIs will be in focus next week following the manufacturing PMI updates. The highly watched September US labour market report will also be due on Friday. Ahead of which, central bank meetings unfold in Australia and New Zealand.

Services firms around the world were shown to have been hit by the continued spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant in August. In particular, the hospitality sector, which had rebounded strongly in prior months, slumped amid the reimposed COVID-19 restrictions in many countries. Through September a decline in worldwide COVID-19 new cases has been evident, meaning the PMIs will be scoured for signs that activity in the service sector is picking up again.

Economic data releases will also be in abundance though the highlight in the coming week will inevitably be the US non-farm payrolls update to assess if the FOMC's criteria of "substantial further progress" was evident in September. Flash US Composite PMI survey earlier pointed to slowing jobs growth in September amid the lack of suitable candidates for hire. That said, the overall unemployment rate is expected to continue falling, which will be in line with the Fed's expectations and support the stance with regards tapering.

Finally, the Asia-Pacific region will see central bank meetings taking place in Australia and New Zealand. The RBNZ's 'live' meeting will be of particular interest as a guide to the stance of other APAC central banks going forward given the Fed's imminent expected taper.

PMI commentary: Chris Williamson, Jingyi Pan

APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas

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Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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