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ECONOMICS COMMENTARY
May 24, 2019
Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 27 May 2019
- EU elections
- US second quarter GDP
- South Korea policy rate, India GDP and Japan's manufacturing performance
Politics will likely once again take centre stage as the markets digest the results and implications of European parliamentary elections. Trade wars will also remain in focus.
While seen as the trigger to the inevitable end of Teresa May's premiership in the UK, the key focus from the European parliamentary elections will be on the uncertainty of what comes next in the Brexit story. The extent of the rise of populist parties in the rest of Europe will also be under close scrutiny, especially in Italy, and has the potential to unsettle markets.
Trade and technology wars have meanwhile escalated, and the intensifying concerns about global trade and geopolitical uncertainty remained a key disruptive factor behind business growth in the latest flash PMI surveys for May, dampening growth in the US, Eurozone and Japan and leading to further stock market stress. Fresh official data on GDP growth in the US, several European countries and India, as well a trade data for the US and manufacturing numbers for Japan, will therefore be examined for further signs of where trade tensions are taking their highest toll and who might be showing more resilience.
The week also sees India and Australia settle down after general elections. While the former is expected to have seen growth slow, with GDP published during the week (see page 5), Australia is showing signs of improved economic performance. However, there are many risks to the outlook facing the Coalition government in Australia, which are explored more fully in our Special Report this week (see page 6).
The main policy action comes from South Korea and Hungary. Although both central banks are widely expected to keep rates on hold, analysts will be looking for signs that more central banks may be looking to cut rates in coming months.
Download the report for the full content which includes:
- Global overview
- Key diary events
- US week ahead
- Europe week ahead
- Asia Pacific week ahead
- Asia Pacific Special Report
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APAC commentary: Rajiv Biswas or Bernard Aw
European and US PMI commentary: Chris Williamson
© 2019, IHS Markit Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
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