The fundamentals of foresight

Foresight is defined as the ability to predict the future. Of course, perfect foresight is unattainable. Companies must rely on imperfect information, they can't account for all variables, their analysis is incomplete, and hundreds of other limitations may impede their ability to see beyond the horizon. However, companies can strive to constantly improve their foresight by improving the quality and quantity of their data, refining analytical tools, and tapping new expertise. It follows that the better the foresight, the more competitive the company.

In times of heightened uncertainty and risk, such as today, foresight becomes even more elusive. There are more variables to consider and the number of possible "futures" increases. Yet it is in times like these when foresight is most critical to business success.

This issue of IHS Quarterly is all about foresight. In Predictions for the new year, IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh plots the direction the global economy is likely to take in 2015. He draws on the insights and expertise of over 300 IHS economists from around the world and the data and analytics they use to develop their forecasts.

Heeding the lessons of Ebola examines the social and economic impact of the virus in West Africa as a regional case study for understanding the consequences of a global pandemic. Documenting the factors that led to the most recent outbreak and spread of Ebola, as well as the economic and social consequences, the article provides valuable insight into how governments and businesses must prepare for and respond to a global pandemic.

Similarly, Where's Russia heading? explores Russia's actions in 2014, the economic and geopolitical shifts, and the likely trajectory for the country through 2018, when President Vladimir Putin's term ends. The article draws on insight and expertise from three perspectives-economics, country risk, and energy-to tell this complex and nuanced story, presenting two scenarios that could unfold over the next four years.

Then there's Alternate futures, authored by Tate Nurkin, IHS Aerospace, Defense & Security. The article details a variety of alternative analysis techniques-such as scenario planning, war gaming, and red teaming-that companies can use to improve their planning and enhance their foresight. Utilized for decades by the military, these techniques are gaining traction in the business sector to help companies deal with risk and uncertainty.

Data, expertise, insight, analytics, tools. The right mix will lead to a clearer vision of the future and, ultimately, to competitive advantage. These elements are the foundation of foresight-and the foundation of IHS.

Scott Key President and Chief Executive Officer, IHS