Week Ahead Economic Overview

The focus next week remains in the UK where inflation and retail sales data will provide further guidance on household consumption and price trends at the start of the second quarter, which will influence the direction of future monetary policy. Updated first-quarter GDP data will meanwhile offer analysts clues as to the health of the Eurozone, Russian, Japanese and other Asian economies.

Bank Indonesia will meanwhile decide on monetary policy next week. Other key highlights will include Germany's ZEW surveys as well as China's investment and retail sales figures.

Analysts will look to official updates to inflation, retail sales data, and labour market figures, as well as the latest Markit HFI survey, for additional clues as to how the UK economy has fared in the second quarter. Recent PMI surveys indicated a pickup in business activity in the UK economy after a sluggish start to the year, but the sustainability of the upturn remains doubtful as higher prices have continued to squeeze household spending. The weaker start to the year has led the Bank of England to nudge down growth projections for 2017 to 1.9% from 2.0%.

Markets are expecting UK inflation climb further above the Bank of England's target, from 2.3% to 2.6%, while unemployment is expected to hold at 4.7%. Underlying wage growth is set to remain a muted 2.2%.

Eurostat will meanwhile release the second estimate of first-quarter GDP for the euro-area next week, which is widely expected to hold at 0.5%, though PMI surveys have indicated a 0.6% rate. An upward GDP revision will add to signs of a strengthening regional economy, which will raise expectations for the ECB to take on a more hawkish stance.

Download the full report for more details and full diary of key economic releases.

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