Passage of Mindanao autonomous region law improves outlook for demobilising Islamist militants in southern Philippines

On 24 July, the Philippine Congress passed the Bangsamoro Organic Law that mandates the creation of a new autonomous region in Mindanao. The law abolishes the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) and replaces it with the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). It mandates a parliamentary-democratic system of government and an independent regional judicial system. It also allocates 5% of total government revenue to the BARMM, increases the regional government's share in taxes on natural resources in Muslim Mindanao, and provides an annual grant of PHP5 billion (USD90 million) during the next 10 years to rehabilitate conflict-affected areas. The law also constitutes the fulfilment of the 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) peace agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). MILF chairperson Al Haj Murad Ebrahim welcomed the law's passage and indicated that the MILF would demobilise its fighters – estimated by the military to number approximately 11,000 in total – if the law is fully implemented.

Significance: The passage of the law is a risk-positive development for agricultural and mining assets in Mindanao, which remain at risk of cargo disruption and property damage because of ongoing fighting between Islamist militants and security forces, as well as attacks by the communist New People's Army (NPA) insurgency. Although MILF fighters already co-operate with security forces against rebel Islamist groups (see: Philippines: MILF-MNLF pact to combat Islamic State in Philippines to limit its territorial expansion, but unlikely to prevent recruitment), the new law will help civilianise the MILF, easing the path for its conversion to a political party. Demobilisation would also decrease security risks by mitigating the possibility that disaffected MILF fighters would switch allegiance to anti-government Islamist groups, such as the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters. Nevertheless, there are still several barriers before the law can be fully enacted. A plebiscite must be held to determine which districts fall within the BARMM's jurisdiction, and the law could be subject to a constitutional challenge. If the plebiscite goes ahead as planned within the next three months, it would increase the likelihood that demobilisation will occur within the next 18 months. In contrast, delays or legal challenges would prevent demobilisation.