Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit for March
Monthly GDP Index rises 0.5% in March 2018
Monthly GDP rose 0.5% in March, following a flat reading in February that was revised down five-tenths. The increase in March reflected solid contributions from PCE and net exports that were partially offset by a large subtraction from nonfarm inventory investment. The level of GDP in March was 1.5% above the first-quarter average at an annual rate, implying decent momentum in GDP heading into the second quarter. Implicit in our forecast of 3.2% GDP growth in the second quarter are increases in monthly GDP that average 0.2% per month.
Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.