China fills the growth gap

With the exception of China, central bank largesse may be providing ballast to the current global rally, but without growth the real economy will become even more divorced from financial markets.

The US is growing but at a low rate for this stage in the business cycle. Europe is stuck firmly in the doldrums, and its policymakers appear to have little idea how to stimulate the economy aside from supply-side measures that will only bear fruit in the long-term.

Without the ECB's willingness to pump liquidity and intervene in the government bond market, it is hard to imagine how markets have ended up in their current position.

Thankfully the world's other main growth engine is going along at a healthy clip. China announced on Friday that its economy grew by an impressive 7.8%. This is China's lowest growth rate in a decade, but the fourth-quarter came in at 7.9%, up significantly from the previous quarter's 7.4%. The uptick was reassuring given the economy was on a downward trend for most of the year.

Government spending accounted for much of the growth, and long-standing concerns about the imbalance in the Chinese economy - overinvestment and under-consumption - are as relevant as ever. But, given the current state of things around the world, the short-termist view of the market is bound to prevail, at least for now.

Western multinationals have been reaping the benefits of strong Chinese growth, with General Electric a major player in the region. The conglomerate's fourth-quarter results released on Friday beat consensus estimates, and the firm attributed the strong performance to its presence in China and 'resource rich' countries.

GE is no longer the stand-out credit it once was: it lost its 'AAA' rating some time ago and its 100bps CDS spread (GE Capital Corp) is relatively weak for a 'AA' name (it trades with an implied rating of 'A'). Nonetheless, it is the largest industrial firm in the US and its solid figures should support the broader market.

US banks, another major influence this week, have also posted decent results this week. It would be a surprise to see companies with exposure to emerging markets reporting strong earnings over the coming weeks.

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