Fed rate hike draws closer as global growth ticks higher

The JPMorgan Global PMI", compiled by Markit, regained some poise after slipping to a nine-month low in September, rising to 53.4. However, the survey merely signals a rate of worldwide GDP growth of just around 2% per annum. Services continued to drive the upturn, as has been the case throughout the past year-and-a-half, though an upturn in the goods producing sector meant the divergence narrowed.

Global PMI and economic growth

Emerging markets act as ongoing brake on global economy

At 49.7, the emerging market PMI remained below the 50.0 neutral level for the fourth time in the past five months. Although the data point to an easing in what has been the worst performance since 2009, the emerging market index is still signalling GDP growth of less than 4%. In the developed world, the PMI also ticked higher but indicated modest GDP growth of just less than 2%.

Emerging markets

UK and US top manufacturing PMI leader board

The UK leapt to the top of the manufacturing PMI rankings in October, followed by the US and then a clutch of continental European countries. The UK saw an unusually marked improvement in its rate of growth to a 16-month high, lurching out of the malaise seen over the summer months. US growth also accelerated, reaching a six-month peak.

Of the 17 countries that recorded expansions, 11 were from the developed world. Of the nine countries, in decline, all bar two - Greece and Canada - were emerging markets, the latter suffering in its role as key supplier of raw materials to emerging market producers.

The steepest downturn was seen in Brazil, which endured its steepest decline since March 2009, followed by Greece, where the downturn continued to moderate.

Global business outlook darkest since 2009

It remains to be seen whether the upturn in the PMI data for October is the start of a global growth revival or a blip in an easing trend, but Markit's Global Outlook survey points to the latter. The data showed PMI survey respondents were more downbeat about the next 12-months than at any time since 2009. The survey was accompanied by the OECD revising down its global growth forecasts. Post-crisis lows were seen in both China and India, and confidence also waned in the eurozone and the UK. Meanwhile, optimism remained relatively weak in the US.

Developed world outlook

Emerging market outlook

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