Pipeline attacks and vocal campaigns by ethnic minorities designated "host communities" in a key oil-producing state in Nigeria are a strong indicator of rising threats to major pipelines, export infrastructure, and onshore fields if these communities are not granted surveillance contracts.
IHS perspective | |
Significance | Militants from the Urhobo ethnic group have been carrying out attacks on oil and gas pipelines to press the case for gaining pipeline surveillance contracts in their home areas. |
Implications | Groups from other ethnic minorities are also becoming more vocal in their campaigns for host communities to benefit rather than former militant leaders of the MEND insurgency. |
Outlook | Failure to satisfy community demands is likely to trigger an expansion of militant attacks to major pipelines, including the Escravos-Lagos gas pipeline assets belonging to Shell and Chevron, such as the major Escravos export terminal, and onshore oilfields owned by indigenous companies. |
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President Muhammadu Buhari at his inauguration on |
President Muhammadu Buhari's victory over previous incumbent Goodluck Jonathan in the Nigerian presidential election has raised hopes among ethnic minorities in the oil-producing Niger Delta that they can at last benefit from their status as "host communities". Buhari has hinted on several occasions that he will conduct a thorough overview of pipeline security contracts, of which the lion's share went to former militant leaders from the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) in return for accepting the amnesty programme in 2009.
Virtually all controllers of the new private security firms were from the Ijaw group, whose leadership of MEND meant only individuals of that ethnicity could rise to be powerful "generals". Minority groups knew there was little prospect of that situation changing when Jonathan, himself an Ijaw, took over the presidency in 2010 on the death of Musa Yar'Adua. However, there are strong indications this is changing, with militants from other ethnic groups taking action to forcefully present their case to the new administration.
The main flashpoint is Delta state, the only oil-producing state where the Ijaw are not in a clear majority. The largest group is the Urhobo, and its militant wing, Urhobo Gbagbako, has been responsible for several pipeline attacks either side of the March-April 2015 general election. It claimed responsibility for improvised explosive device (IED) attacks on two major gas trunk lines of the Nigeria Petroleum Development Company (NPDC) in Ughelli North and South local government areas (LGAs) on 29 April. It had previously hit a NPDC pipeline in Ekiugbo on 22 March and staged a triple attack on the company's pipelines at Ighrenene, Afiesere, and Ekiugbo on 2 April. Urhobo Gbagbako spokesperson Priest Omodjuvwu said the actions - so far causing limited damage and largely of symbolic value - were in protest at pipeline surveillance contracts in Urhobo-dominated areas being given to "outsiders".
More recently there are indications that militancy is being stepped up among other host communities in Delta state who have so far steered clear of violence. On 14 June, protesters from the Isoko ethnic group joined Urhobos in storming the NPDC's Jeremi Flow station in Ughelli South and shutting down production. They were again demanding pipeline surveillance contracts, as well as payment of outstanding salaries to host community workers, and threatened that all facilities in Oil Mining Lease (OML) blocks 26 (operated by Afren), 30 (Heritage), 34 (ND Western), and 65 (NPDC) would remain shut until their requests were granted.
Similarly, community leaders from the Itsekiri, who are spread throughout western regions in Warri South, South-West and North LGAs, have indicated they want to end their exclusion from pipeline security contracts. Itsekiri youth groups have been in several violent confrontations with Ijaw rivals in recent weeks over ownership of the site of the USD16-billion gas processing facility in the Export Processing Zone at Ogidigben in Warri South-West. A groundbreaking ceremony has been postponed twice in the last six months, and Itsekiri leaders have said that unless work starts soon, and the community starts to benefit from jobs associated with one of the biggest projects in Nigerian history, they will halt operations at the nearby Escravos facilities run by Chevron. The export terminal has a production capacity of 300,000 barrels a day, while the USD10-billion gas to liquids facility operated by Chevron with the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) started operation late last year.
Outlook and implications
Buhari certainly faces a difficult decision over the allocation of pipeline security contracts, but the situation is particularly acute in Delta state. Visiting Rivers state before his inauguration, Buhari said he would not tolerate "an army within the army and police within the police", suggesting he wants a greater role for the paramilitary Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps. This would be received badly in Delta, where non-Ijaw groups believe that their share of contracts as host communities is long overdue. Similarly, removing contracts from the Ijaw, in Delta state and elsewhere, would also drive militancy.
Pipeline attacks by the Urhobo have been aimed at state-run facilities to pressure the government, but several oil and gas pipelines belonging to Shell and Chevron run through Delta state and would be likely targets if the campaign expands. Main areas at risk are the Urhobo heartland of Ughelli South and North, as well as Udu LGA, while if the Isoko step up their militancy, campaigns will spread to Isoko North and South. The Itsekiri have made a specific threat to the Escravos terminal, which exports around 15% of Nigeria's total oil output, but it is also within range of the other ethnic groups. Another high-value target is the major Escravos-Lagos gas pipeline, which runs through several LGAs in Delta state and has been vandalised several times already this year, contributing to gas supply issues that cut Nigeria's power output to record low levels. Onshore oil blocks have been divested by majors to indigenous companies in the last few years and, although those operations enjoy better relations with local communities, threats have already been made to stop production.