At a national congress held on Sunday (10 May), the former ruling party (Congrès pour la Démocratie et le Progress: CDP) elected Eddie Constant Komboïgo, as their leader ahead of the presidential election on 11 October 2015.
IHS perspective | |
Significance | Passage of the electoral law on 7 April means the presidential and legislative elections on 11 October 2015 are likely to be held on schedule. |
Implications | The frequency and scope of violence are likely to increase due to the ongoing political rivalry, communal grievances, and the rising cost of living. |
Outlook | The country's fragile political stability will be threatened in the event of the former ruling party returning to power. |
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The National Assembly was set alight in November during an uprising that led to |
Komboïgo, aged 47 and a former CDP parliamentarian from December 2012 to October 2014, is among the new breed of politicians seeking to revamp the party's image by apologising for past mistakes and promising socio-economic development. However, the party is not seeking to break away from its past. Former president Blaise Compaoré, currently in exile in Cote d’Ivoire, was elected as honorary president of the party at the congress. The CDP congress was the party's first national event of note since the abrupt departure of Compaoré in October 2014 as a result of a popular uprising against his attempt to amend the constitution. In his acceptance speech, Komboïgo urged the transition government to revise the new electoral law, passed on 7 April 2015 that bars military officers and all individuals that supported Compaoré's constitutional amendment plan, from participating in presidential elections.
Political violence
Even though the CDP party is not banned from participating in presidential and parliamentary elections, it is not yet clear if any of its candidates associated with Compaoré's government will be eligible to stand for political office. Eligibility decisions are largely political due to the vagueness of the exclusion provision contained in the electoral law. On 6 May 2015, the Constitutional Council rejected a legal suit challenging the new electoral law on procedural grounds. Three days before the court's decision, six civil groups announced plans to hold peaceful protests against the electoral law in the form of a sit-in at the office of the Transition Council.
Alongside the controversy over the electoral law, the transition government has arrested several members of Compaoré's administration including former ministers. Shortly after the passage of the electoral law, the transition government arrested Salif Kabore, the former minister of mines and energy, and three other former officials on embezzlement charges. He has denied all allegations of corruption. On 22 April, Frédéric Nikiéma, a spokesperson for the transitional government announced that there would be more arrests of members of Compaoré government in the days and months ahead. A coalition of civil society groups formed on 5 May has announced that it would hold protest marches to demand the release of political prisoners.
From 7 May, the High Council for Communication (Conseil Supérieur de la Communication: CSC) has banned all political announcements on radio and television for three months. The CSC stated that the ban was necessary to prevent incitement in a bid to promote the country's social cohesion, although the ban is likely to further spur anti-democracy protests mainly in Ouagadougou and Bobo Dioulasso.
Social protest
Alongside the political unrest, labour unions and student bodies are planning to hold protests to demand improved social conditions in the face of the rising cost of living. On 8 April, a national coalition against the high cost of living and corruption (Coalition de lutte contre la vie chère, la corruption, la fraude, l’impunité et pour les libertés: CCVC), a platform of trade unions, student bodies, and civil groups held a large protest in the capital Ougadougou. More than 50,000 people took part including students, which forced schools and universities to close for the day. A larger march was held on May Day (1 May) calling on the transition government to take immediate action to address the high cost of living, as well as retrieve state funds allegedly stolen by the previous government.
The CCVC protest was largely peaceful but disruptive to the movement of cargo and motorists in the central district of Ougadougou. However, there have been sporadic protests and intercommunal disputes that have resulted in violence. On 22 April, protesters barricaded the Ouagadougou-Kaya road in Ziniare (Compaoré’s birthplace), blocking traffic in both directions, following a dispute between Fulani and Mossi (Compaoré’s ethnic group). Also, on 30 April, in Sabce, 90 kilometres (km) north of Ouagadougou, residents demanded the appointment of a new mayor, after having forcibly chased out the old one for alleged mismanagement and divisive policy.
Outlook and implications
Burkina Faso's roadmap for transition back to democratic rule is on track following the passage of the revised electoral code on 7 April. The new code sets the stage for presidential and parliamentary elections on 11 October 2015. With the elections approaching, the risks of protests and labour actions, including strikes (with possible violence against government departments and some mining operations) and legal disputes will increase as politicians promote a populist agenda such as greater benefits from the business sector, in particular the mining sector, for the population. Should the CDP win the elections in October, the risk of protests against alleged theft of funds by Compaoré’s government will increase
The overthrow of the previous government has also emboldened local mine workers and communities alike to use force, including arson attacks, against foreign mining firms to demand social and financial benefits. The Canadian firm, True Gold Mining's Karma gold project operation was halted for almost three months when residents in Noogo village, Namissiguima, in January set fire to mining equipment, causing significant damage. The attack on True Gold came two months after similar incidents on foreign mining operations. In the build up to the elections there will be an increased threat of violence against the mining sector, such as the invasion of sites to loot, vandalise, or commit arson.