Luxury sedans from Lincoln, Cadillac, and Jaguar are receiving worldwide reveals at this year's New York Auto Show, as are family mid-size sedans from Chevrolet and Kia. Scion is also set to unveil new products at the expo, while Lexus will debut a larger RX.
IHS Automotive perspective | |
Significance | Unlike in earlier expos in 2015, sedan introductions will outweigh those of utility vehicles at the New York Auto Show media days on 1 and 2 April. |
Implications | One of the most significant US shows in terms of consumer attendance, historically the New York Auto Show also often has introductions of luxury cars, as the area is one of the strongest luxury markets in the US. The 2015 show delivers in terms of that trend, although there is also a strong showing from mainstream brands, particularly in the mid-size segment. |
Outlook | For Cadillac and Lincoln, the introductions in New York of their respective range-topping sedans will mark another chapter in the rebuilding of each brand. In terms of brand impact, these are the two most significant introductions at the show. However, Scion's two introductions will also have outsized impact on that brand, as it has been long-starved of product. Meanwhile, there will be at least three new entries in the mid-size sedan market, which remains the largest in the United States, as well as the most crowded and most hotly contested. |
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2016 Jaguar XF. |
This year's New York Auto Show (3-12 April) will put a focus on passenger cars, rather than sport utility vehicles (SUVs), and offer less in the way of sports cars than previously, though representatives from all of those segments will be seen. There are also likely to be some surprises at the show. Below is a preview of the introductions to especially watch out for, which will be unveiled at the media days on 1 and 2 April.
Sedans dominate New York introductions
Cadillac will reveal the CT6, which it has already teased in a new brand-building advertising campaign, and Lincoln is widely expected to reveal the successor to the MKS. While unconfirmed by Lincoln, internet rumours suggest the car will revive the Continental. The product that we know the least about at the time of writing is the Lincoln, as the brand is keeping a very tight lid on the reveal, as Ford also did with the GT sports car at the North American International Auto Show (NAIAS) 2015 and the F-150 at the NAIAS 2014.
Jaguar, along with the two US luxury brands introducing the next phase of their most expensive sedans, will introduce a major update to the XF at the New York Auto Show - though the brand teased its sedan at a special event with a high-wire stunt across the Thames River in London on 24 March (see United Kingdom: 25 March 2015: Jaguar unveils new XF). The XF is forecast to achieve sales of about 9,000 units per annum (upa) in North America, or about 17% of Jaguar's total sales in 2018. The new XF receives updates to its aluminum-intensive architecture and adapts technology introduced with the most recent Jaguar and Land Rover products, but is a major change. It is the XE and pending F-Pace SUV that usher in the second generation of Jaguar's key platform.
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2016 Cadillac CT6. Image courtesy of GM. |
Cadillac's CT6 will be closely watched as the brand struggles to connect with modern luxury buyers. The sedan will sit on top of Cadillac's current range, though the company is developing a different product to be the "flagship" of its passenger-car line-up. The CT6 will serve the Cadillac brand role of introducing technology to the General Motors (GM) portfolio, a role that new Cadillac president Johan de Nysschen has indicated is part of the future strategy, even if it has not always been the case in even the recent past. To that end, Cadillac has shared background information on several of the CT6's new systems, including the semi-autonomous Super Cruise feature, which GM CEO Mary Barra announced in a speech in 2014, a video rear-view mirror system, an advanced body structure that uses mixed materials to keep weight down and improve safety, and an all-new twin-turbo V6 with cylinder deactivation (see United States: 23 March 2015: Cadillac announces new V6 engines, 8-speed automatic transmission for CT6, United States: 19 December 2014: Cadillac to launch video rear-view mirror on CT6 and United States: 8 September 2014: GM CEO outlines next step to automated cars). And if the product itself were not significant enough, this will be the brand's first New York show outing since Cadillac announced it is moving its headquarters to New York (see United States: 24 September 2014: GM confirms Cadillac HQ will be in New York). Globally, we forecast the new large sedan to increase Cadillac sales to about 52,000 upa by 2019, though North American sales are forecast at about 15,000 upa. The CT6 is important to Cadillac's image globally, but it will be most important to Cadillac's volume aspirations in China.
Along with these new luxury sedans, the mainstream sedan segment receives significant changes in New York this month, as Chevrolet introduces an all-new Malibu (see United States: 5 March 2015: New York Auto Show 2015: Chevrolet confirms introduction of new Malibu, Spark expected), Nissan unveils the new Maxima, and Kia shows a new Optima. Ahead of the show, details on the Nissan Maxima have largely been limited to a glimpse of the car at the end of a SuperBowl television commercial in January; Kia has also shared a teaser image of the Optima, though it was also previewed by a concept at the Geneva Motor Show that was dressed as a wagon (see United States: 19 March 2015: New York Auto Show 2015: Kia to introduce all-new Optima and Switzerland: 19 February 2015: Geneva Motor Show 2015: Kia concept to offer preview of next-generation Optima).
The mid-size sedan segment is fiercely competitive in the US market. Sales of vehicles in the standard mid-size car segment reached 2.37 million units in 2014; while the segment is under pressure, we forecast that it will still achieve US sales of 2.4 million units in 2021. IHS does not forecast significant changes in market share for the three new sedans being introduced next month, largely due to the competitiveness of the segment.
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2016 Chevrolet Malibu Hybrid system. Image courtesy of GM. |
Chevrolet has released some pre-show information on the Malibu, which will offer a true hybrid powertrain for the first time (as opposed to the eAssist stop-start hybrid technology of the previous generation). The new Malibu's hybrid will leverage systems from the 2016 model-year Volt's propulsion system, as the company is able to begin rolling out Volt technology to other applications, and Chevrolet promises a combined fuel-economy rating of more than 45 mpg - this will beat Ford's combined 42 mpg and Toyota's combined 41 mpg in the Fusion and Camry, respectively. However, the Malibu's total hybrid system output will be 182 hp, compared with the Fusion's 188 hp and the Camry's 200 hp. However, as hybrid sales struggle in this environment and remain less than 3% of the US market, more important to Malibu's sales fortunes will be Chevrolet's execution of packaging, design, and technology for the overall range.
Utilities play to luxury audience
The New York Auto Show is seeing introductions of several SUVs or crossover utility vehicle (CUVs). The latest-generation Lexus RX will be revealed there (see United States: 23 March 2015: New York Auto Show 2015: Lexus to update RX for 2016), along with a performance-orientated version of the Land Rover Range Rover (see United States: 25 March 2015: New York Auto Show 2015: Land Rover to debut 380-ps Range Rover Sport HST). Mercedes-Benz is also using the show for the US introduction of the production GLE, a minor facelift to the ML also brings a new name, a plug-in hybrid powertrain (GLE550e), and the company's advanced driver assist systems. However, this introduction should not be confused with the GLE Coupe introduced at the 2015 NAIAS in January. The GLE550e goes on sale in the US in September, following the traditional powertrain family launch in August. US sales of the updated GLE will include seven engine variants, with two AMG offerings and one diesel.
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2016 Mercedes-Benz GLE550e. |
Mainstream SUV introductions in New York are expected to include the first North American viewing of the next-generation Hyundai Tucson, as well as a facelift for the Mitsubishi Outlander. The Tucson was introduced in European dress at the Geneva Motor Show in March (see Switzerland: 4 February 2015: Geneva Motor Show 2015: Hyundai joins raft of mid-sized SUV launches with new Tucson) and has potential to see US sales grow from 47,306 units in 2014 to about 78,000 units in 2016. While the Outlander introduction is a facelift, due to focus on front and rear fascias, Mitsubishi has promised the car will reveal a new brand design philosophy (see United States: 24 March 2014: New York Auto Show 2015: Mitsubishi to reveal 2016 Outlander).
Scion gets much-needed small car, Chevrolet gets a Spark
With New York's urban base, both Chevrolet and Scion have small-car news. Chevrolet's new Spark reveal will be co-ordinated with an introduction in Seoul, South Korea, and follows the introduction of its sibling, the Opel Karl, in March at the 2015 Geneva Motor Show (see Switzerland: 4 March 2015: Geneva Motor Show 2015: Opel introduces Karl, Corsa OPC, announces OnStar in 2015 and United States: 10 March 2015: New York Auto Show 2015: Chevrolet to reveal new-generation Spark). Only a teaser image of the Chevrolet has been revealed so far, but IHS expects an increased level of available advanced driver assist systems as well as increased available technology. Production of the Spark will continue in South Korea, with IHS forecasting US sales volume to be about 28,000 upa. While not high-volume for Chevrolet, the model provides the brand with an entry-price product and the opportunity to gain loyal consumers with one of their first vehicle purchases. GM says that about 26% of sales of the first-generation variant went to buyers under the age of 35.
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2016 Scion iA. Image courtesy of Scion. |
Along with the Spark, the Scion brand is introducing two new models: the iM hatchback and the iA sedan (see United States: 9 March 2015: New York Auto Show 2015: Scion confirms introduction of iM and iA and United States: 20 November 2014: Los Angeles Auto Show 2014: Scion promises more models, shows upcoming iM). Scion has been starved of new products of late and has strong hopes for the iM and iA. The iM borrows from the European Toyota Auris hatchback, but the iA is only the second Scion that is not a variation of an ex-US Toyota product. The iA is expected to be the B-segment car on Mazda's SkyActiv platform, built at Mazda's new plant in Salamanca, Mexico. To be offered in the US and Canada, IHS Automotive forecasts these two products will increase Scion's North American sales by about 50,000 upa.
Ford will also show the Focus RS, which is having a North American introduction following its Geneva reveal last month (see Switzerland: 5 March 2015: Geneva Motor Show 2015: Ford reveals Focus RS with drift mode).
Outlook and implications
For Cadillac and Lincoln, the introductions in New York of their respective range-topping sedans will mark another chapter in the rebuilding of each brand. In terms of brand impact, these are the two most significant introductions at the show. However, Scion's two introductions will also have outsized impact on that brand, as it has been long-starved of product. However, in terms of market impact, at least three new entries are expected for the mid-size sedan market, which remains the largest in the United States, as well as the most crowded and most hotly contested.
In terms of the increasing preference of US buyers for SUVs, the New York show will play host to introductions of notably more sedans than SUVs. While sports cars also played a larger role at the Geneva and Detroit auto shows earlier this year, performance is largely being sidelined in New York, despite McLaren's plan to reveal its 570S brand-entry car and the US introduction of the Ford Focus RS.