Failure to pass Land Acquisition Bill would indicate wider legislative resistance from opposition in India until 2016

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government tabled its controversial Land Acquisition Bill for debate in the Lok Sahba (parliament's lower house) today (9 March). The bill was first introduced on 24 February, but met intense criticism from opposition parties, led by the Indian National Congress (INC), as well as sections of civil society. The legislation was among six passed by the government as ordinances in late 2014, which implements the laws without parliamentary approval. However, the ordinances are temporary and will expire on 5 April unless the government obtains approval from both parliamentary houses by the end of the ongoing session on 20 March.

Anti-farmer proposals

Critics of the new legislation argue that its provisions are "anti-farmer", a statement that is deeply resonant in a country where the vast majority of the population remains rural (70% according to the 2011 census). Under the existing Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement Act 2013, the government or investors are required to obtain the consent of 80% of farmers for land being acquired for private projects and 70% for public-private partnerships. The government's bill proposes to remove this, and the requirement for social impact assessments, for infrastructure, defence, national security, industrial corridor (as part of the government's "Make in India" initiative, which aims to boost manufacturing), and affordable housing projects.

The protest movement against the bill has gathered momentum over the past week, placing the current BJP government under heightened pressure. In particular, Anna Hazare's involvement in the movement has given it significant credibility. Hazare, who led a deeply popular anti-corruption protest movement in 2011 and is a mentor to the leader of the Aam Aadmi Party that defeated the BJP in Delhi, held a two-day sit-in against the land bill on 23–24 February and is now planning a 1,100-km protest march from Mahatma Gandhi's home in Sevagram, Maharashtra, to New Delhi.

Fallout from Delhi state election

Although opposition to the bill has predominantly been based on the potential impact on farmers, the political resistance is much more likely to be opportunistic. IHS notes that many of the contentious provisions in the bill were initially proposed by INC-run state governments following the passage of the current law in 2013. A significant catalyst for the reinvigorated opposition is the BJP's comprehensive defeat in the Delhi state election last month. Since winning last year's national parliamentary election, the BJP had until Delhi largely swept or gained significantly in state elections that have followed, mostly because of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's national appeal. The Delhi election defeat has broken the BJP's sense of invincibility.

Opposition parties in India remain weak individually, but together they can block the government's legislative agenda because of the BJP's minority in the Rajya Sabha (upper house). Although not official, the opposition, including the INC, appears to be forming a united front against the land bill, having refused to even debate the bill's proposed provisions. As such, the aim ostensibly is to permanently block the bill and embarrass the BJP, which has invested heavily on being able to get business-friendly legislation passed and implemented.

Outlook and implications

Prime Minister Modi has limited options to get the bill passed by 20 March. He and other BJP officials have repeatedly indicated that the government is willing to water down some of the controversial provisions to get the law passed. However, with the opposition unwilling to negotiate and civil society resistance increasing, the most likely scenario is of the bill being passed over to a parliamentary committee to recommend amendments by the next session on 20 April.

The opposition would consider such a scenario a victory, and would feel encouraged to work together further against the BJP, meaning resistance to the government's legislative agenda would intensify over the next year. This will particularly affect the Insurance Bill, which raises the foreign direct investment limit (FDI) in the sector to 49% and is also currently being considered by parliament, amendments to the companies act, labour reform, and the new Goods and Services tax, which the government hopes to implement from April 2016.

The BJP can call joint sessions of parliament, under which the government would have an overall majority, to override opposition in the Rajya Sabha. However, there are several requirements for joint sessions and few have actually led to legislation being passed. Nevertheless, during his tenure, Modi has emphasised the need for fresh thinking, and is heavily invested in resolving the policy paralysis of the previous government, which makes the option of joint sessions increasingly likely in the one-year outlook. However, the situation in the Rajya Sabha is likely to change in mid-2016, when the BJP will have the opportunity to increase its numbers, depending on state election results until early 2016. A positive result for the BJP would remove a major legislative block for the government during the remainder of its tenure.