President Filipe Nyusi of Mozambique has sworn in his new cabinet, which is younger and more technocratic than its predecessor and represents an attempt to strike a careful balance between factions within the ruling FRELIMO party. A key appointment is that of Pedro Couto as minister of mineral resources and energy.
IHS perspective | |
Significance | The new government will set policy for a minimum of the next five years, which will determine economic policy, energy policy, and overall political stability. |
Implications | Nyusi's new government will attempt to balance competing factions while he consolidates his position. The influence of his northern backers will begin to grow in the extractive industries, while former president Armando Guebuza will remain prominent in the sectors dealing with land, agriculture, and transport for the time being. |
Outlook | Improving the regulatory outlook in the extractive industries could be jeopardised by FRELIMO's internal disputes. |
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The new president of Mozambique, Filipe Nyusi of |
Mozambique's president, Filipe Nyusi, appointed his new cabinet on 17 January. The cabinet appears to be a careful balancing act between regions, factions, and interest groups within the ruling party, the Mozambican Liberation Front (Frente de Libertação de Moçambique: FRELIMO). The new cabinet also promotes a younger, more technocratic government with a reputation for competence and reducing the overall number of ministries from 19 to 13.
Allies of former president Armando Guebuza, such as José Pacheco, who heads an expanded Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, and is a member of the Political Commission, remain in government, indicating the continuing influence of Guebuza, who remains party head until 2017. Two other close associates of Guebuza were appointed: Carlos Mesquita, the new minister of transport and communications is the former head of Cornelder de Moçambique, the company that runs the port of Beira, which is partly owned by Guebuza; and Celso Correia as minister of land, environment and rural development, who is the founder of Insitec, an investment group that focuses on banking and financial services, construction, real estate, and energy, which is also linked to Guebuza. The incoming prime minister, Carlos Agostinho do Rosario, however, is closer to former president Joaquim Chissano, as is the minister of economy and finance, the former governor of the Bank of Mozambique, Adriano Maleiane, which are among the more powerful positions in the government. A third key appointment is Pedro Couto as minister of mineral resources and energy. Members of the previous government such as Helena Taipo, former minister of labour, and Alberto Mondlane, former minister of the interior, have been appointed as governors in the restive provinces of Sofala (Taipo) and Manica (Mondlane).
The new government does not include members of any party outside of FRELIMO, despite repeated threats by Afonso Dhlakama, the leader of the main opposition party, the Mozambican National Resistance (Resistência Nacional Moçambicana: RENAMO), to form a separatist republic in the centre and north of Mozambique if a power-sharing government is not formed. Dhlakama's rhetoric remains belligerent but negotiations continue and there is a high likelihood of defections from his ranks. Consequently, we do not think that RENAMO will return to armed attacks at this point; however, if it did this would raise moderate risk of attacks to road cargo and security forces in central Mozambique.
Changing gatekeepers heralds contract risks in extractive industries
Nyusi now needs to prove he can act independently from Guebuza. Consolidating his power will require a careful balancing act, allowing former party leaders to retain their interests, while slowly increasing the influence of his own northern backers. The appointment of Guebuza allies as ministers of transport and agriculture indicate that Guebuza's influence in these sectors is likely to remain significant, for the time being. However, as Nyusi consolidates his power, his backers around General Chipande and the northern lobby group, Cabo Delgado em Movimento (CDM), will become prominent in the energy sector and new extractive projects in the centre and north of the country, raising contract renegotiation risks for existing agreements with Guebuza allies.
Energy-sector policy changes likely to improve transparency
A major factor in future economic and investment policy decisions is the appointment of Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy Pedro Couto. Couto is widely respected for honesty and competence. His appointment appears to respond to calls from within the ruling party and the wider society to take a harder line with gas and mineral companies regarding local content and increasing state revenues, while curbing reported corruption among some sections of the FRELIMO elite through championing the role of the state in the extractive industries and enforcing compliance with existing provisions. However, Couto's position is likely to be threatened if he acts against corrupt elements within FRELIMO by reviewing existing mineral concessions, for example. Previous reformers from within FRELIMO, such as former Maputo mayor Eneas Comiche, were eventually dismissed after taking a tough stance against the party elite's business interests.
Outlook and implications
Nyusi came to power as a relatively unknown compromise candidate for FRELIMO. He won a reduced share of the popular vote in comparison to Guebuza in the 2004 and 2009 elections, while facing a revitalised RENAMO opposition. The relative weakness of his position, especially as Guebuza remains head of the party until 2017, is reflected in the way his government tries to balance the interests of competing factions and regions while also attempting to publicly distance itself from the corruption perceived by the electorate to characterise the previous administration. As Nyusi consolidates his power, it is likely that his northern backers will take a more prominent role in both government and the extractive economic sectors.