IHS Automotive offers a preview of what to expect at the 2015 NAIAS; while many product introductions have been confirmed, there are still rumoured products not confirmed – and always room for a few surprises.
IHS Automotive perspective | |
Significance | This year's North American International Auto Show opens to media on 12 January, to members of the industry on 14 January and to the public on 18 January in Detroit. This year's show will be heavy on performance and trucks. As automakers continue to work toward more aggressive fuel economy standards, alternative powertrain solutions will be showcased. |
Implications | Going into the 2015 show, the Detroit automakers are back on firm financial footing and international automakers are also in notably better shape. While the past several years of introductions focused on more practical offerings, it seems that companies are now able to look at the fun side of automotive life. |
Outlook | The US automotive market has ended its best year of sales since before the recession. Despite the recession, automakers have largely come out stronger, able to be profitable at lower volumes and having shed excess capacity. With the most difficult work seemingly out of the way, and consumers feeling more optimistic, timing is right for introducing offerings that address the non-core products. |
The North American International Auto Show is the largest industry event in North America every year, and as such is typically a good reflection of where automakers see potential for trends and prospects for the next 12 to 24 months. In 2015, we expect fewer vehicles to address high-market centres. In a happy accident for consumers, these performance and truck models are being revealed against lower gasoline (petrol) prices than they have been in years. Based on data gathered to date, we review some of the most significant products we expect to see.
Sporty and performance introductions
Easily the most significant performance vehicle introduction will be the Acura NSX sports car, which also falls into the alternative category, as it will be motivated by Acura's hybrid powertrain system (see United States: 18 December 2014: NAIAS 2015: Acura to show production NSX). The NSX will not be a high-volume seller, but it will bring Acura back to the sports car market and try to revive some of the credibility the first-generation NSX brought to the brand. Concept versions have been on the show circuit for a few years. We do not expect any surprises here, but do expect the vehicle to be one of the stars of the show.
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Model year 2016 Cadillac CTS-V |
Cadillac will reveal the third-generation CTS-V (see United States: 18 December 2014: NAIAS 2015: Cadillac to unveil third-generation, 640-hp CTS-V). The CTS-V raises the horsepower bar for luxury sport sedans, will be offered with a body kit package (which we were assured comprises only fully functional pieces) that enables buyers to opt for the extremely aggressive look, or without the add-ons for a much more refined, tailored image.
Ford will introduce its Ford Performance brand (see United States: 12 December 2014: NAIAS 2015: Ford unveils global performance brand and SYNC 3 infotainment system), and has been rumoured to be bringing a successor to the 2006 Ford GT (see United States: 23 November 2014: NAIAS 2015: Ford to reveal GT successor). IHS does expect a Ford F-150 Raptor based on the new F-150 and a performance variation on Mustang. Ford has been extremely tight-lipped on its plans for the show, and it is likely that there will be a surprise product.
Lexus confirmed it would introduce two performance models, and later provided background on the GS F (see United States: 7 December 2014: NAIAS 2015: Lexus announces details of GS F). The GS F takes the 467-hp engine from the RC F coupé, and looks to continue Lexus' efforts to create a true luxury performance image for itself. The second product is not confirmed, and one of our expected surprises.
It has been rumoured on the internet that Alfa Romeo will use the Detroit stage to show the convertible variant of the 4C Spider, and Buick will introduce a new convertible for its US range, borrowed from the Opel Cascada. Buick has some opportunity in presenting a refined, four-seat convertible at a lower price point that German luxuries. IHS forecasts that the Buick could see volumes in the 9,000-unit range. The 4C is expected to be a niche product, with volumes lower than 200 units – but significant for its role as a brand builder supporting Alfa Romeo's longer-term ambitions for the US market.
Utilities
On luxury stands, utilities will be under the spotlight. Audi has confirmed its second-generation Q7 (see United States: 15 December 2014: NAIAS 2015: Audi shares introductory details of all-new Q7), while Volkswagen (VW) is widely expected to introduce a concept or near-production version of the SUV due to be produced in its Chattanooga, Tennessee (US) plant in 2016. Lincoln is expected to show a production version of the MKX Concept introduced at the Beijing Motor Show in April (see China - United States: 22 April 2014: Beijing Motor Show 2014: Lincoln reveals MKX Concept). Mercedes-Benz expands its SUV range with the GLE Coupé, which directly targets the likes of the BMW X6.
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Model year 2016 Mercedes-Benz GLE |
For Audi, the follow-up to its successful Q7 is due to move technology forward, while keeping the overall package considerations consistent. The Q7 is due to eventually take a plug-in hybrid option. VW needs the SUV, and fast, to slot between the Tiguan and Touareg. The company's range is dominated by cars in a market that is moving toward a roughly 50/50 demand split between for cars and SUVs, and its relatively thin SUV line-up is contributing to US sales struggles. Lincoln has done very well with the fresh MKC, and the MKX concept promises a stylish entry that continues to evolve and create larger separation from sibling Ford Edge, which is also new for 2016 model year. Mercedes revealed photos and initial details of the GLE in December (see Germany: 10 December 2014: Mercedes-Benz unveils new X6-rivalling GLE Coupé); we expect most of the product variations to be on display at NAIAS. Mercedes is also offering performance, as the GLE is expected to include an AMG variant and a performance range to slot between the standard cars and the hyper-performance AMG variants.
Trucks
The trucks being planned for the show also straddle the performance category, and Ford is widely expected to present the new generation F-150 Raptor. Details on the Raptor are not clear, but it will live up to the extreme capability and power of the outgoing version. Nissan will introduce its next-generation Titan, and has confirmed a V-8 Cummins diesel engine is key to its strategy. The rumour mill says that Ram will offer an aggressive, off-road skewed variation of the 1500, though details are scarce. Toyota has confirmed that it will introduce the new-generation Tacoma, as challengers GMC Canyon and Chevrolet Colorado arrive on market and have already garnered several awards.
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Model year 2016 Toyota Tacoma |
For the F-150 Raptor, Ford will continue to demonstrate the capability of the new F-150 underpinnings, as well as demonstrating that the Ford Performance programme will have opportunity to play across the company's product portfolio. The Raptor is not high volume, but the outgoing version provided a significant image boost. Nissan's Titan truck sales lag behind the market and have done since launch. The new generation needs to carve out some space that is uniquely Nissan, and give consumers a reason to put it on their shopping list more compelling than simple brand loyalty. This is a daunting challenge, given the intense competition among the segment leaders. Automotive News indicates a Ram executive confirmed that the 1500 gets a minor update for 2016, while other rumours indicate an off-road package not unlike the Raptor, although there is at the time of writing no confirmation of a high-power engine. Toyota dominates the mid-size truck market, something that is not expected to change with the General Motors (GM) products. Launching a new Tacoma certainly underscores that Toyota has no intention of letting its hold on the segment slide.
Alternative powertrains
Balancing out the performance and truck slant to the show, alternative powertrain advances are not forgotten. Honda will show the FCV Concept to the North American market, having introduced it in Japan last November. Chevrolet is showing the next-generation Volt, while Hyundai is tipped to be showing hybrid and plug-in hybrid variations of the Sonata. Little is known about the Hyundai products – and there are also rumours of a surprise concept from that company as well.
Chevrolet's next-generation Volt is expected to increase range, and a quick look shown at CES indicates a more refined exterior style. Chevrolet is also widely rumoured to be showing an additional concept, though has been silent on the subject. The vehicle could be a 200-mile range EV that former CEO Dan Akerson indicated was in the works some time ago (see United States: 18 August 2014: GM says Cadillac ELR is not answer for Tesla, files trademark for Chevrolet Bolt).
Outlook and implications
Going into the 2015 show, the Detroit automakers are back on firm financial footing and international automakers are also in notably better shape after the recession. While the past several years of introductions focused on more practical offerings and many automakers pushed back plans for more optimistic, fun offerings, it seems that by now, companies are able to again take a look at the fun side of automotive life.
The US auto market has ended its best year of sales since before the recession. Despite the difficulty of the recession, automakers have largely come out stronger, able to be profitable at lower volumes and having shed excess capacity. With the most difficult work seemingly out of the way, and consumers feeling more optimistic, timing is right for introducing offerings that address the non-core products. Notably missing this year are simple sedans, of any size or price point. This is in part a reflection of the industry's current rush toward filling every inch of SUV space, as well as product lifecycles. IHS Automotive forecasts 12 updated sedans will start sales over the course of 2015, compared with 19 in 2016.