Violence risks rise in Kabwe city as Zambia's ruling party prepares to select new leader in succession race

Constitutionally, Acting President Guy Scott is unable to stand for the Patriotic Front (PF) at the by-election because of his Scottish parentage, but his position in the executive office and the party gives him influence over proceedings. However, this influence is being tested, and arguably has been weakening, since Scott attempted to dismiss Minister of Defence and Justice Edgar Lungu as PF secretary-general on 3 November. The initial dismissal, which came less than a week after Sata's death on 28 October, drew criticism from within the PF and led to rioting by some of Lungu's supporters in the capital, Lusaka, before Scott announced his reinstatement on 4 November. Since then, contention has erupted within the PF, with one faction claiming that Lungu was adopted as the PF presidential candidate at a meeting of the party's Central Committee on 13 November, two days after Sata's burial. Lungu gained the support of 63 members of parliament for his candidacy, but it was disputed by Scott, who has insisted that the PF should hold a general conference to elect its new leader, in accordance with the party's constitution.

The infighting has led to a series of conflicting messages from within the PF, not only about the selection process but also about suspensions of key members of the party, including Scott himself. Scott's suspension by 25 members of the PF's Central Committee on 21 November was declared "null and void" by Acting Secretary-General Bridget Atanga, who took over from Lungu after he officially entered the PF succession race. Atanga later announced on 26 November that Scott's suspensions of 16 Central Committee members on 22 November had been lifted. The acrimonious succession race had also seen one unconfirmed local report suggest that the military had indicated that it could offer transitional leadership until the January elections if the PF is not ready to govern. However, Zambia's army commander Paul Mihova stated in November that army personnel should refrain from participating in partisan politics and support the incumbent government.

Conference title decider

The Lungu camp has been frustrated in its attempt to endorse the defence minister without an internal contest. Several PF members are now vying for the presidential ticket alongside Lungu, including former defence minister Geoffrey Mwamba, former foreign affairs minister Given Lubinda, Minister of Commerce, Trade and Industry Robert Sichinga, Minister of Youth and Sport Chishimba Kambwili, agriculture minister Wylbur Simuusa, and former diplomat Selemani Banda. Two of Sata's family members are also running: Sata's nephew, Miles Sampa, who is deputy minister of commerce, trade and industry, and his widow, former first lady Dr Christine Kaseba. Kaseba's entrance into the race was more surprising, but a relative of the late president, Emmah Mwila Chibesakunda, was cited by local media as saying it stemmed from her desire to save the party amid its current divisions. Chibesakunda also appealed to family members to rally behind her. Initially, Sata's son, Mulenga, who is mayor of Lusaka, was also a candidate, but withdrew on 26 November, saying that "a polarised and divided party doesn't auger well for our future".

Kaseba could potentially be promoted by some within the PF as a unifying candidate that can fulfil Sata's legacy until the next general election is due in 2016, which would increase the likelihood of her receiving Scott's support. Kaseba had previously said that her husband had no anointed successor, and has been among those who backed Scott in his position as acting president. Although Lungu has been a frontrunner in the succession race, victory at the general conference, which will be attended by around 5,000 delegates, is less certain than it likely would have been via a Central Committee selection process.

Opposition challengers

However, it is not only the PF that has been suffering internal disputes. Nevers Mumba came to lead the former ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) shortly after it was unseated by the PF at the 2011 elections, but he has faced opposition from within the party. As party president, Mumba believes he is the rightful presidential candidate for the 2015 by-election, but some within the party have sought to bring back former leader Rupiah Banda. Although Mumba won a court injunction reversing his suspension after the MMD's National Executive Committee attempted to remove him, Banda formally accepted a nomination on 27 November to stand on the MMD ticket.

The turmoil in the PF and MMD increases the prospects of the United Party for National Development (UPND), which has ranked third in recent elections. Its candidate will again be party leader Hakainde Hichilema, who has also gained the backing of former president Levy Mwanawasa's wife Maureen, who said the country needed a younger president. Zambia has experienced the deaths of two presidents in office within the space of six years (Mwanawasa died in 2008), so this is likely to resonate with some among the electorate.

Outlook and implications

Although other parties will also be fielding candidates, the PF, MMD, and UPND will be the main contenders in what is likely to be a tight race, with the winning candidate needing a simple majority to secure election. First, however, the MMD and PF must settle their leadership issues, with all presidential aspirants having until 19 December to lodge their nomination papers with the electoral commission. The PF's leadership question should be answered on 29 November, although the acrimony that has surrounded the issue raises the possibility of further demonstrations by, and clashes between, partisan supporters. Police will be patrolling in Kabwe, where the conference is taking place, and have indicated that checkpoints will be mounted along the Great North road. Other potential hotspots include Lusaka and Kitwe, where there was rioting after Lungu's temporary dismissal on 3 November.

These areas are also flashpoints if violent demonstrations break out in the run-up to the polls and as parties await the results, with risks of injury to bystanders and property damage, as well as potential for fighting with the security forces. At the last presidential election in 2011, groups of mainly young people from various parties were reported to have burned tyres in the streets and smashed car windows, after delays in the opening of some polling stations in Lusaka. Meanwhile, delays in tallying results in that election also led to riots in the Copperbelt (Kitwe and Ndola), which is traditionally a PF stronghold along with Lusaka.

A PF victory at the upcoming by-election would point to policy continuity, although there is a possibility that some policies, such as the introduction of statutory instruments banning currency repatriation, could be revisited by a new PF leadership. However, the PF will also be looking ahead at the 2016 elections and will therefore maintain the populist stance, which led Sata to victory in 2011. Meanwhile, victory by the MMD or UPND would probably spell more business-friendly policies, but would also increase risks of a wave of contract reviews, as has previously happened when power has transferred. Following the 2011 elections, sectors that faced such reviews included banking, telecommunications, and mining. However, the winner of the 2015 by-election will only have a short time in office, meaning that the political and business sectors are likely to face further uncertainties until presidential and parliamentary elections are held in 2016.