Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Now in its third consecutive term in power, the Labour government is struggling to sustain momentum and to keep a lid on periodic 'scandals'. Yesterday's local elections were a key test of the extent of public disaffection and the degree of success the opposition Conservatives have had in overhauling their image. |
Implications | Labour lost over 200 councillors in the local elections, mainly to the Conservatives - a very poor result but not quite as bad as it might have been. This did not stop Blair making some rather brutal changes to the ministerial line-up – most notably sacking Charles Clarke as home secretary and demoting Foreign Secretary Jack Straw. |
Outlook | It is tempting to exaggerate the Labour Party's problems – mid-term local elections always tend to penalise the party in power – and Labour has proved before that it can marshal its forces much more effectively come a general election. Nonetheless, it does seem that the Conservatives are finally ready to mount a realistic challenge and Labour is hamstrung by the infighting surrounding Blair's eventual departure. |
The Losers…
- Charles Clarke: The most prominent casualty is Home Secretary Charles Clarke. He has been hit by controversy over the failure to deport foreign convicts upon their release from jail. Bureaucratic bungling was largely to blame and it has been revealed that a number of the individuals went on to re-offend. There has long been controversy over the authorities' poor record on deporting failed asylum-seekers, but the latest revelations have raised the stakes considerably. In some ways Clarke has become the fall guy for problems much further down the hierarchy, but it seems that he was warned about the problems and failed to react decisively.
- John Prescott: The deputy prime minister has been by Blair's side since 1997 and has built up quite an empire within the civil service. Today's reshuffle abruptly reverses this, and takes away many of his departmental responsibilities. Plain-speaking Prescott is a favourite of the party's left, but his image has been badly damaged by revelations that he conducted an extra-marital affair with his diary secretary. Prescott has also been criticised over the performance of various parts of his department – notably housing provision. His super-ministry, covering housing, local government, regeneration, planning and urban and regional issues, is now due to be split up.
- Jack Straw: The softly spoken foreign secretary is perhaps the most unexpected of today's victims. He moves to become leader of the House of Commons, a relatively high-profile and responsible post, but with lower prestige. Straw has spent years defending the government over the Iraq war and wrestling with other diplomatic problems such as Iran's nuclear programme. He has had mixed reviews, but has managed to avoid major gaffes. Prior to becoming foreign secretary in 2001, Straw was home secretary. The shift to the Commons would seem to mark the end of his political ascent. Ironically, his predecessor as foreign secretary, the now late Robin Cook, was also moved to the Commons spot.
- Ruth Kelly: The education secretary's meteoric rise through government has come to an abrupt halt. She has been discarded after struggling to win support for the government's bold education reforms and she has faced a number of acute controversies, including revelations over paedophiles working in schools.
- Hilary Armstrong: The Labour Party chief whip is replaced by Jacqui Smith, following great problems winning sufficient Labour backbench support for key bills.
…And the Winners
- Margaret Beckett: Probably the biggest surprise of the day is Margaret Beckett's promotion from the role of secretary of state for environment, food and rural affairs to the post of foreign secretary. She has been a constant presence in government since Labour's victory in 1997, but has never attained one of the top posts. She does not have a particularly good public image, but she has nonetheless had much experience negotiating international agreements pertaining to trade and the environment.
- John Reid: With a reputation as both a 'bruiser' and an intellectual, Defence Secretary Reid has been steadily rising through the cabinet ranks. He now takes on the very powerful yet generally thankless post of home secretary. He was previously Northern Ireland secretary.
- Alan Johnson: Promoted from trade and industry to become education secretary is Alan Johnson. He is regarded as a Blairite and a rising star, but he will have his work cut out convincing teachers, voters and Labour backbenchers that the market-oriented education reforms will work.
- Des Browne: Promoted to become defence secretary.
Sideways Moves
- Alistair Darling: This well-known Labour figure takes on Johnson's vacated role as trade and industry secretary, moving from transport secretary.
- Geoff Hoon: Straw knocks Geoff Hoon out of the post of leader of the House of Commons, and the latter takes on the new role of Europe secretary instead (in place of Alan Douglas). It is difficult to tell whether this should be regarded as a demotion or promotion, but Hoon's stock has not been high since his time as defence secretary was plagued by controversies.
Local Election Drubbing
The changes came in the wake of yesterday's local elections, which saw Labour finish third in terms of vote share, behind the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. The ruling party lost over 200 seats and lost control of 18 county councils. The losses could have been greater, but they nonetheless give new Conservative leader David Cameron something to crow about. His party won control of 12 councils and gained 250 seats, making inroads in the major cities. The Liberal Democrats won less than 20 additional councillors, but nonetheless declared themselves pleased. Worryingly, the far-right British National Party (BNP) managed to double its number of councillors, including winning 11 from Labour in London 's Barking. The results are partial and the full tally will not be known until the weekend.
Outlook and Implications
That there was a cabinet reshuffle was no surprise, but the extent of it is fairly dramatic. Some of the losers may well regard themselves as scapegoats for problems not of their own making. The more fundamental problem Labour faces at the moment is the uncertainty over its future direction. Tony Blair has announced that he will stand down ahead of the next election, but he has refused to name a date. He is also apparently reluctant to anoint his long-term rival, Chancellor Gordon Brown. It has always been assumed that the latter will take over, but some in the party feel his moment has passed and that a younger party figure is required. The Conservatives have gone for the latter option with the selection of David Cameron as leader. With his moderate image he does pose a greater threat to Labour than his predecessors, although polls show that voters still need to be convinced that he is prime minister material. A Conservative victory at the next general election is thus no foregone conclusion, but Labour needs to clarify its leadership succession timetable sooner rather than later.