Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Warlords who have accused the Islamic militias of having links with al-Qaida have ruled over the capital, Mogadishu, since it collapsed into anarchy following the removal of former dictator Mohammed Siad Barre in 1991. |
Implications | Following their apparent triumph, Islamist militias have announced plans to rule the capital under Islamic Shari'a law. |
Outlook | The U.S. government - which has been accused of funding the warlords, despite strong opposition from the country's transitional federal government (TFG) - has already voiced its concerns that the country could now become a haven for extremists and foreign terrorists. However, most Somalis practice a liberal form of Islam, and would not accept the capital or the rest of the country being governed under strict Islamic rule. |
The Joint Islamic Courts (JIC) have claimed victory in their four-month battle to seize control of Mogadishu from warlords who ruled the city for 15 years. In a statement broadcast over local radio stations, JIC Chairman Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed said that warlord control of Mogadishu was over and urged residents to accept the new leadership.
Law and Order
The JIC currently group together 11 Shari'a courts that have sprung up in the capital in recent years, following the collapse of the country's legal system. According to Belgium-based think-tank the International Crisis Group (ICG), these courts began as essentially clan-based institutions intended to restore security and order in a stateless society. However, attempts to unify and coordinate the court system have been in large part politically motivated, and some courts have been hijacked by extremists. In recent months, the Mogadishu Shari'a courts have pursued an aggressive political and social agenda, including measures such as setting up an Islamic militia force. These have brought them into direct conflict with warlords who feel increasing threatened by their growing influence – a situation leading to the establishment in February 2006 of the paramilitary Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT) and the subsequent battle for control of the capital. This has claimed hundreds of lives and forced thousands of civilians to flee the city (see Somalia: 22 February 2006: Scores Killed in New Fighting between Warlords, Islamists in Somali Capital).
Battle Against Terrorism, or for Survival?
The ARPCT brings together some of the most powerful warlords in the capital, and was established as an anti-terrorist alliance. The alliance allegedly receives backing from the United States, despite strong objections from the TFG; Washington has always maintained that it has no direct involvement with the group (see Somalia: 4 May 2006: Somali President Accuses U.S. of Aiding Warlords). ARPCT members – such as Mohamed Qanyare Afrah, Musa Sudi Yalahow, Omar Mohamoud Finish, Botan Issa and Bashir Raghe Shirar – who also held senior cabinet posts within the TFG until their dismissal on Sunday (4 June 2006) – are opposed to the JIC, labelling it as 'extremist' and accusing it of having al-Qaida links (see Somalia: 5 June 2006: Somali Premier Dismisses Warlord Ministers for Undermining Government). The JIC has repeatedly denied any association with al-Qaida, but has declared a holy war against the ARPCT; clerics denounce the group as being an ’enemy of Islam’ for its alleged association with Washington (see Somalia: 24 April 2006: New Clashes Reported in Somali Capital as Islamic Courts Declare Jihad against Warlords).
Outlook and Implications
The U.S. government, which has been accused of funding the warlords as part of its war on terror, fears that extremists and terrorists could flock to the country following the latest developments. Although Washington's concern is valid to a certain extent, it also appears to be slightly exaggerated. Given the lack of central authority in Somalia, the American government is right to view the country as a fertile ground for Islamic extremism and a potential safe heaven for terrorists. However, to compare the country with Afghanistan – a former terrorist hideout – is to overstate things somewhat. Unlike Afghanistan, Somalia is essentially a secular country and most Somalis are unlikely to accept being ruled under strict Shari'a law. While Islamic courts are currently receiving popular support in the capital for taking on the dreaded warlords and bringing a degree of law and order to the capital, this is likely to wane if they attempt to make all Somalis conform to their rules. Furthermore, given how battles between various warlords and factions have been fought in Somalia during the past decade and half, with warlords and their armies often switching sides and their allegiances, it would also be highly premature to write off the ARPCT as a spent force. With the United States seemingly intent on controlling the spread of the JIC, it is likely that ARPCT members will attempt to regroup and counter-attack.