Eleventh-Hour Compromise Allows EU Talks with Turkey to Open

An acrimonious row brewed by Cyprus preceded the opening of formal membership negotiations between Turkey and the European Union (EU). Although the talks went ahead, the threat of future derailment is obvious. Last week, Cyprus reiterated that it was prepared to veto 'every stage of the negotiating process' until Turkey gave official recognition to its government and opened ports and airports to Cypriot traders. This almost prevented Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul from attending a meeting of EU foreign ministers yesterday. Although the EU has committed Turkey to this as a condition of eventual membership, a last-minute compromise was agreed to appease Cyprus, which 'underlines the importance for Turkey of compliance with the Associate Agreement, including its additional protocol and the customs union' and adds that 'failure to implement [Turkey’s] obligations in full will affect the overall progress in negotiations'. This refers to the agreement reached last year to open talks, but could also be interpreted as an admission that a Cypriot veto should be expected at each stage until movement from Turkey is seen. The latter has repeated the link between recognition of Cyprus with a resolution to the island's divide, on the basis of a UN-mandated reunification plan, and is pushing its own proposals to end the isolation of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). A review of Turkey's membership progress will be due later this year, with few signs that the extension of the customs protocol to Cyprus will have been implemented, or that movement on reunification will have been seen – particularly as Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos's party saw a successful re-election at last month's parliamentary elections.

The arrival of Gul and chief negotiator (and Finance Minister) Ali Babacan to the Belgian capital, Brussels, for talks yesterday was interpreted as a tacit agreement of the EU position. The talks opened on one of 35 negotiating chapters, the 'easy' topic of science and research. In the months since the decision to allow formal talks to start, a screening process has been carried out on the body of Turkish law to ascertain which parts comply with the EU acquis communautaire and which need revising or appending, with science and research chosen as a chapter that could be closed quickly – as was achieved yesterday – and be a symbolic step forward (see Turkey: 4 October 2005: EU, Turkey Begin Long Road of Accession Talks). This was overshadowed by the accompanying row; the benign screening process has been incongruous with the political rows that have been taking place. The EU has been increasingly concerned about the domestic situation in Turkey and the pace of the reform process, calling for momentum to be revived. Shortly before accord was reached, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that talks failing to be launched could colour future relations with the EU. One EU official commented that the bloc was risking its credibility, let alone relations with Turkey, if talks did not start as planned, telling the Financial Times that the strategic importance of Turkey – which paints itself as a moderator between East and West – had only increased in the last year.

Rumblings on the Home Front

In addition, Prime Minister Erdogan and the Justice and Development (AK) government are facing pressure at home from the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) to call new elections. Even though the CHP is no threat to the government majority, the two are fighting for the position of defender of the republic, as separatist violence and debates over secularism and politics have escalated. Detractors would argue that the apparent instability of at least part of the political spectrum is evidence that Turkey is in no position to become an EU member. The Turkish government may pre-empt this by withdrawing from negotiations altogether, if it feels it is losing face – it has threatened this in the past, as the need to be an EU state is not linked inherently to its identity (as has been the case in past enlargement rounds). The evidence of this was clear when the EU took its decision to open talks last year; Turkey was ready to turn its back on the EU if a slight had been given.

Criticism of the Turkish reform progress has not just come from the EU, however. The IMF had become frustrated at the delay of new laws promised in line with a standby arrangement. The government has argued that these reforms are on the way. Bills in parliament include those covering the following areas: trade (in order to harmonise Turkish and EU law); corporate tax reform (this was due to be approved to apply from 2006); the harmonisation of road and traffic legislation with EU regulations; the creation of an investment agency; and electronic communications (protecting domain names, frequencies and numbers, and creating an electronic communications network to replace systems deactivated by natural disasters, fires, or war). Social security reform has latterly been approved, despite a veto from President Ahmet Necdet Sezer. Much work is still to be done -however, with a good ten years ahead to carry out reforms, Turkey is in two minds as to how to respond to the pressure. It naturally wants to prove its worth, attract high levels of foreign investment, and ensure that the economy does not slip back into a financial crisis seen in 1999. The government is keen to ensure that these moves are not intrinsically linked to its EU bid, but ones that would have been initiated regardless.

Outlook and Implications

Comments by Gul in Brussels that 'Turkish-EU relations should not be poisoned unnecessarily because of Cyprus' indicate that the row between the two will not be subsiding any time soon; each each step of the negotiating process will be beset with obstacles. One Turkish daily noted that at least 69 more crises could be expected, with the approach of the remaining 34 chapters to open and close. In addition, a note in the EU position paper on the science and research chapter says that if Turkey does not meet its obligations, the closed chapter may be returned to. This is a clear warning to Turkey and a victory of sorts to the frustrated Greek Cypriot government, which has managed to link the reunification issue to the chapter.

The situation contrasted with the experience of Croatia yesterday, which sailed through its first negotiating chapter (see Albania–Croatia– Europe: 13 June 2006: EU Begins Accession Negotiations with Croatia and Turkey, Commits to Future Albanian Membership). Regardless of the snail's pace of talks with Turkey over the coming decade, a more critical debate will have to be relaunched on the scope of future enlargement. Without the landmark European Constitution, derailed by French and Dutch vetoes last year, there are some who argue there is no legal basis for further enlargement, not least those who oppose the principle of it.

Turkey has faced opposition at each incremental step taken, with Enlargement Commissioner Ollie Rehn reiterating that it expected concessionary moves from Turkey now. The major areas of concern in the annual progress report later this year have already been indicated; freedom of expression and religion (with particular reference to non-Muslims), plus the renewed violence in the south-east with the Kurdish minority.

These are not new concerns, adding to the frustration of the Turkish government - which feels it has been meted out unequal treatment compared to other candidate states. It has made moves within a new penal code that have strengthened human rights, but at the same time has drawn concerns for its constraints on basic freedoms, which led to another spate of charges and cases against writers and journalists. It has also failed to elicit a change in attitude in the judiciary and law enforcement, which will take some years to effect. The rising violence is also a strong concern of the government, which feels the international community, especially the United States, has not helped efforts to contain fighting and separatist tendencies. This violence will continue until some satisfactory accommodation with the Kurdish community can be arrived at. However, the matter is complicated by rising violence in northern Iraq and the city of Kirkuk, which has a strong Kurdish minority (see Turkey: 27 April 2006: U.S., Turkey Stress Mutual Good Relations).

Thus, whilst the first step has been made, it is indicative of the pain that will be experienced even with the simplest matters. At present, the chances of negotiations being concluded are remote. The opening of talks - instead of being a symbol of the future - could push the Turkish government to a more intransigent position on reform, and has turned the focus on how soon talks may falter

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