Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The latest development suggests that the Islamic courts are to expand their influence to other parts of Somalia, and may perhaps run the country someday. |
Implications | The Islamic militias are now reportedly heading north towards the town of Baladwayne, near Ethiopia. This suggests that they are not quite ready to confront the country's Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which is currently based in another northern town, Baidoa. |
Outlook | The Islamic militias and the TFG are likely to come into confrontation in the coming weeks, following the latter's decision to approve the deployment of foreign peacekeepers to help stabilise the country - to which the Joint Islamic Courts (JIC) are principally opposed. |
The Islamic militias loyal to the JIC were yesterday finally able to take over Jowhar, which lies about 90 km north of the capital Mogadishu, following clashes with the U.S.-backed warlords that controlled the key town. Immediately after seizing it, the militias moved to impose law and order by imposing a dusk-to-dawn curfew and warning that they would shoot any looters on site as a way of securing the town and reassuring its residents.
New Rulers
The JIC militias have already taken control of large parts of the capital from the U.S.- backed warlords – grouped under the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT) banner – last week (see Somalia: 6 May 2006: Islamic Militia Declares Victory in Battle for Control of Somali Capital). Mohammed Dheere, who was in charge of Jowhar until its fall yesterday, is also a member of the ARPCT, which was set up last February as a paramilitary anti-terrorism coalition aimed at containing the growing influence of the Islamic (Shari'a) Courts in Mogadishu and the surrounding region, which they claim support terrorism.
Another Blow to Washington
Jowhar's fall is yet another blow to the United States and its misguided decision to back the ARPCT as part of its global war on terror, despite the TFG's and international community's advice against such an approach (see Somalia: 4 May 2006: Somali President Accuses U.S. of Aiding Warlords). The superpower helped set up and backed the APRCT – which contains some of the most powerful warlords in the country, who have also been responsible for causing much of the destruction and chaos in the past decade and half – in the mistaken believe that they would help defeat the Islamic militias and disband the Shari'a courts that have become more prominent in recent years. Washington believes that such courts promote an extremist brand of Islam and harbour international terrorists, and that if unchecked the situation could see Somalia end up like the former, Taliban-run Afghanistan.
In truth, the Islamic courts – whilst containing some extremist elements – are essentially clan-based and were created to fill the void left by the absence of a central authority and basic law and order in the capital since the country's former dictator, Mohammed Siad Barre, was ousted in 1991. The warlords on whom the U.S. has expended so much money and resources are opportunists - happy to take Washington's money under the guise of fighting terrorism, while actually fighting to maintain their own fiefdoms from falling under JIC influence. The United States’ decision to throw its lot with the warlords only appears to increase the popularity of the JIC among ordinary Somalis – who are, in the main, secular – instead of diminishing it.
Outlook and Implications
The TFG, established in neighbouring Kenya in late 2004, is currently recognised as the only legitimate power in the country by the international community. However, the transitional administration, which is seeking to promote secular rule in Somalia, is likely to come into confrontation with the JIC in the coming weeks unless the two sides reach some form of a consensus. The likelihood of conflict increased considerably yesterday when the transitional parliament voted in favour of the deployment of foreign peacekeepers to help stabilise the country, which the JIC opposes.