Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The French government, led by Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, has been facing increasing criticism from the opposition over economic and social policy, as well as for its alleged implication in an embarrassing politico-legal corruption scandal. The pressure is clearly beginning to take its toll on the prime minister, who last week lashed out at his opposition rival in parliament, leading to calls for his removal. |
Implications | In order to reassure the public, Jacques Chirac felt the need to make a televised appearance yesterday to show support for the prime minister and rule out any government reshuffle ahead of next year’s elections. Surprisingly, he chose not to wait until his annual address on 14 July. Meanwhile, the government’s falling popularity ratings can be expected to continue. |
Outlook | It appears to be too little too late for de Villepin’s political survival, as pressure mounts for his removal from office. In this case, ambitious Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy could be asked to take over in order to reunite the ruling party, which is increasingly divided over government policy. The president will announce early next year whether he will stand for a third term in office, but this is highly unlikely. |
An Unconvincing Performance?
In an increasingly uncertain political environment, President Jacques Chirac yesterday made an appearance on public television channel France 2 to tell the French that all was well at the country’s political summit, and to reassure the public that the ruling majority party, the Union for a People’s Movement (UMP), continues to support the government. Interestingly, the president chose not to wait until his annual address to the nation on 14 July, marking the storming of the Bastille prison and the beginning of the French Revolution. The president has come under increasing pressure from opposition parties to intervene in the current political climate. Both he and his prime minister are currently experiencing some of the lowest approval ratings for the country’s leadership since the Fifth Republic was established in 1958. Keen to convince the public of his continued support for the government, Chirac declared: "The government has assumed its tasks with success, and I see no reason to stop it continuing its action with determination."
Asked whether Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin retained his confidence, Chirac replied in the affirmative. Nonetheless, the president’s performance was predictably criticised by some opposition deputies as unconvincing. Jack Lang, former Government Minister for the opposition Socialist Party (PS), noted that the president’s televised intervention ”gave the impression of being cut off from reality.”
The press was equally critical of the president’s performance, many comparing the current government crisis to that facing the national football team at the World Cup, full of a past generation of players. The centre-right daily Le Figaro questioned whether Chirac’s confidence in de Villepin would help stem the ”cold revolt” from within his own party. The most damning criticism from the press was that Chirac ”doesn’t hear anything, doesn’t understand anything, doesn’t see anything.”
The president also spoke out about other issues dogging the government. Foremost, Chirac announced an ”extraordinary” parliamentary session to be held in September, where the contentious merger between state-run Gaz de France (GdF) and Suez would be approved. Having earlier dismissed the Mittal bid for Arcelor as ”hostile,” Chirac now conceded that the offer had become ”friendly and therefore acceptable.” In relation to the problems facing the pan-European defence company EADS, the president only stated that something needed to be done, and ”something will be done.”
Reality Check
Regardless of Chirac’s public display of faith towards his most trusted PM and one of the most committed “Chiraquiens,” it is increasingly undeniable that de Villepin is fast losing his grip on the premiership. Dogged by controversy and scandal, the prime minister, who took office one year ago in the wake of the French rejection of the European constitutional treaty, has seen his ratings slump to unprecedented levels, currently barely above 20%. Violent riots across the country towards the end of 2005, followed by the equally spectacular resistance movement against a new youth labour contract, and the government’s subsequent backdown on the measure, contributed significantly to de Villepin’s political fall from grace, and set in motion many within his own party to distance themselves from him. Moreover, de Villepin took office with a personal ambition to decrease the country’s stubbornly high unemployment rate. Although current statistics reveal a fall in unemployment, only 10% of new jobs have been attributed to job creation policies, the rest were due to restructuring.
More recently, the Clearstream political scandal, in which de Villepin has denied all involvement in relation to directing a smear campaign to discredit his rival, Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, has further weakened the PM’s authority. Now, government inaction in the face of perceived favouritism towards Noël Forgeard, the embattled co-chief executive of EADS responsible for the delay in delivery of the new Airbus A-380 jets, is causing the opposition to call openly for de Villepin’s removal from office. Speaking on television this morning, Marie-Georges Buffet, leader of the Communist Party (PCF), declared that there was no point removing only de Villepin; for her, early elections are the only viable solution now.
Outlook and Implications
Undeniably, the political situation in France is far from being as rosy as Jacques Chirac yesterday attempted to present it. The prime minister has faced and, for many, has failed some big challenges during his year in office. His inexperience at the summit of government did much to leave him vulnerable to that well-established French tradition of social protest. Both Chirac and de Villepin were humiliatingly obliged to back down on a job-creation measure in April this year after popular resistance, and neither has managed to recover from it. Tensions between the government and the opposition reached a new peak last week after de Villepin lashed out at PS leader François Hollande and branded him a ”coward” in parliament; he later apologised, but the incident left a lasting impression on the opposition as well as on deputies within his own camp, who are increasingly worried about their own chances of success at next year’s polls.
It will be interesting to observe for how much longer Chirac can continue his unconditional support for the prime minister. It is in some measure true that Chirac wants to keep his ally close to him in the face of the challenge from ambitious Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy. None the less, Sarkozy currently commands most support and respect among UMP deputies and party members, as well as among the public. The early elections scenario is unlikely; Chirac, ironically on de Villepin’s advice, went down that road in 1997 and lost the parliamentary majority to the Socialists. The most likely scenario would be a government reshuffle, but the president seemingly ruled out that possibility yesterday. A dogged determination to continue with the status quo will not help the government, least of all the prime minister.
Jacques Chirac knows that he is coming to the end of his political life; try as he might, he will probably not succeed in resuscitating his friend and ally Dominique de Villepin’s career either. Nonetheless, all is not lost for the ruling party, with Sarkozy still the favourite for the presidency next year. What remains most troubling, however, is the insistence by the country’s embattled political leadership to not cede to growing pressures for change from the ruling party’s own deputies, the media, and the public; this, more than anything, will result in a rude awakening for the centre-right in France come election year.