International Tension Builds as North Korean Government Test-Fires Long-Range Missile

North Korea Raises Stakes in Nuclear Missile Crisis

The North Korean government today test-fired at least six missiles, including a long-range Taepodong-2, thereby ignoring repeated warnings from the international community and raising the stakes in the current nuclear standoff. The Taepodong-2 missile, which has a range of up to 6,000km, giving it the potential to hit Alaska, Hawaii and possibly the U.S. mainland, failed a mere 40 seconds after it was launched, while at least another five short-range Scud or Nodong missiles plunged safely into the Sea of Japan about 600 kilometres from the Japanese mainland.

North Korea has faced severe international warnings over the past month over the preparations for the missile test, which was the country's first test-firing of a long-range missile since the Pyongyang regime engendered an international crisis in 1998 by launching an intermediate-range Taepodong-1 over Japan. The threat of the impending launch spurred the United States to activate its anti-missile defence system and led the Japanese and South Korean militaries to be placed on high alert, while share prices have also fallen in both countries. The prospect of a North Korean missile launch has prompted much debate in the U.S. administration, and the North’s decision to go ahead with the test is to be seen as a measure to put maximum political pressure on Washington; Paik Hak-soon, head of North Korean studies at the influential Sejong Institute think-tank, pointed out in the Financial Times (U.K.) the symbolic importance of launching the test on 4 July - Independence Day in the United States. As such, it forms part of the Stalinist regime’s brinkmanship diplomacy to pressure the United States into conducting direct negotiations with North Korea regarding its nuclear programme; the six-party talks on the issue have been at an impasse since November 2005, with North Korea having demanded that the United States lift economic sanctions relating to the regime’s alleged counterfeiting before it returns to negotiations (see North Korea: 21 June 2006: Government of North Korea Seeks Dialogue amid Escalating Missile Test Crisis).

International Condemnation Ensues

The audacious move by North Korea has led to severe international condemnation, and has served to put significant pressure on the United States and other six-party states members to penalise Pyongyang. White House spokesman Tony Snow subsequently condemned the launch as "a provocative act" that emphasises North Korea’s unwillingness to heed calls for restraint by the international community. While emphasising that the failed long-range missile did not pose any threat to the United States, Snow asserted that it provided proof of the regime's "intent to intimidate other states", with the United States being willing to take necessary steps to protect itself and its allies. The United States and Japan have threatened sanctions, with Japan requesting a closed emergency session of the UN Security Council today to discuss recent developments; Japan is expected to present a UN resolution against the missile tests. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill are engaged in talks with their counterparts in Japan, China, Russia and South Korea, with Hill having been dispatched to the region for a fresh round of discussions. Meanwhile, North Korea’s sole ally China has refrained from making any official statements on the issue and its possible consequences.

Brinkmanship with Teeth

North Korea's decision to test-fire the long-range missile, having previously engaged in similar brinkmanship diplomacy "without teeth", reflects the degree to which U.S. economic sanctions have put pressure on the Stalinist authorities in recent months. This is highlighted by reports that Kim Jong-il told Chinese president Hu Jintao earlier this year that he feared the collapse of his regime under the weight of the sanctions. Meanwhile, North Korea has been feeling ignored in recent months, with U.S. attention firmly focused on the Iranian nuclear crisis. The U.S. administration is also unwilling to budge from its view that the economic sanctions must be seen as separate from the stalled six-party talks. As such, a frustrated North Korean leadership may see its current move as a viable means to regain attention on the international stage and break the diplomatic deadlock on the nuclear issue.

Moreover, the Korean People’s Army (KPA) has further consolidated further its position in North Korean politics in recent years, and a number of observers have voiced speculation that the missile tests should be seen as a necessary move for Kim to reassert his role with the army by flexing his military muscle and exhibiting his adherence to the regime’s "military first" (songun) doctrine. Under momentous financial pressure, the KPA may be starting to doubt Kim's capabilities as a leader, and there is no doubt that despite the failure of the Taepodong-2, the test will probably be portrayed domestically as a triumph, with state media engaging in their usual portrayal of North Korea as the hermit kingdom holding "the imperialist forces of the world at bay".

Outlook and Implications

The launch of the Taepodong-2 as a key diplomatic bargaining chip is likely to backfire, as it can be expected to lead to the imposition of economic and other sanctions on North Korea, thereby further isolating the country. Although U.S. military action has generally been ruled out as a response, with Vice-President Dick Cheney stating that such a strategy would require the United States to be prepared to fire more than one shot, the missile tests constitute a significant security challenge for the Bush administration. The U.S. government has little interest in becoming bogged down in yet another nuclear crisis, as it already has its hands full with the Iranian nuclear crisis and the occupation of Iraq. Nevertheless, Bush famously named North Korea as part of "the Axis of Evil" in 2002 (along with Iran and Iraq), and the missile test will vindicate hawks in the administration. As such, the move calls for a strong response if the Bush administration is to avoid appearing as "a paper tiger", after issuing several threats over the issue.

The U.S. government is therefore faced with the challenge of obtaining international support for efforts to effectively penalise North Korea. The United States and Japan are likely to push strongly for a UN Security Council resolution against North Korea, although China is expected to hinder such efforts by vetoing any sanctions, due to its recurring fears a North Korean implosion could destabilise China’s north-eastern border regions with massive refugee flows. However, China is engaging in a balancing act between its aims of propping up its troublesome ally to ensure such stability, and maintaining good relations with the United States. The North Korean decision to launch the missile will increase pressure on China, which has not held the expected amount of power over the Kim regime. However, the move has reportedly caused severe irritation in China, which is now likely to put more pressure on North Korea, while still primarily pursuing a diplomatic solution to the crisis, preferably within the framework of the six-party talks. This is also the case with the South Korean government of Roh Moo-hyun, which is coming under increasing pressure from its ally the United States and the opposition Grand National Party (GNP) to take sterner action against North Korea, leading it to consider the cancellation of vital food supplies to the impoverished North over the issue.

The Kim Jong-il regime’s bold move to raise the stakes in the nuclear crisis has thus weakened Pyongyang’s bargaining position, by exposing the weakness of its missile capacity, while undermining its usual strategy of blaming the United States for the impasse in the six-party talks. It now faces the prospect of further international isolation and economic sanctions, which are likely to reinforce the current hardship of the country with potentially destabilising effects. It now remains to be seen whether efforts to rein in North Korea’s nuclear programme will take place through the framework of the six-party talks, the UN or through a coalition of actors led by the United States and Japan.