Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | The signings of a peace memorandum and a ceasefire agreement create a historic moment in the relationship between Angola and its Cabindan enclave, establishing the prospect of unity through dialogue for the first time in their three-decade-long war. |
Implications | While the power struggle over the legitimacy of this peace process may not be settled, the seeds of change have been planted. |
Outlook | Even if an armed opposition remains a viable threat to the unity deal, the peace memorandum will have created the institutions and communication channels that will allow for a necessary dialogue between Luanda and Cabinda. |
Peace Memorandum
The small province of Cabinda, an enclave wedged on the Atlantic coast between the Republic of Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo and physically separated from the rest of Angola, may have opened the door to peace. The controversial Antonio Bento Bembe, head of the prominent Cabindan Forum for Dialogue (FCD), has finally signed two crucial agreements with the government in Luanda, which could pave the way towards a normalisation process between the two warring factions.
The first, and most important, document, the peace memorandum was negotiated and signed in Brazzaville under the aegis of rotating African Union (AU) president, Denis Sassou Nguesso, who is also the Congolese president. The signing ceremony took place on Saturday (15 July) and included Angolan Territorial Administration Minister Virgilio Ferreira de Fontes Pereira and Bento Bembe. This document establishes five crucial principles for the transition to peace: amnesty for rebel fighters, the immediate cessation of hostilities, the demilitarisation of the Cabindan forces under the supervision of the FCD, the reduction of the Angolan military presence in Cabinda, and the reintegration of the FCD's members in the Angolan military and government.
This agreement was complemented by the signing of an ultimate ceasefire agreement on Tuesday (19 July), which is intended to commit the Cabindan separatists irreversibly to putting an end to armed struggle and engaging in dialogue. In exchange for peace, political and economic autonomy, which recognises the cultural specificity of Cabinda, will be engaged. The ceasefire enters into effect today.
Brewing Dissent
The peace process has entered a new and unprecedented phase in Cabinda. Prominent separatist leaders are for the first time agreeing to drop separatist aspirations and openly discussing peaceful negotiations over a Cabindan autonomy status within the Angolan state. Could this be a pipe dream? If we are to believe certain church leaders and Bento Bembe's Cabindan detractors, it is.
When Bento Bembe first announced the FCD's intention to sign a ceasefire agreement with the Angolan authorities in Luanda on 29 June, his initiative had already been disavowed (see Angola: 6 July 2006: Cabinda Leaders Reject Alleged Unity Deal with Angola). Again, voices of dissent were heard. The most vocal opponents to the deal have been Catholic Church leader, Raul Taty, and the leader of the Front for the Liberation of the Enclave of Cabinda (FLEC), Nzita Tiago. Both men have made it clear that they would not support the initiative as they reject Bento Bembe's authority and deplore the lack of inclusiveness with which the process has been carried out.
Outlook and Implications
The signing of the peace memorandum and the ensuing ceasefire agreement create a historic moment indeed for the relationship between Angola and its Cabindan enclave. It establishes the prospect of unity through dialogue for the first time in their three-decade-long warfare. Viewed from Luanda, even if Bento Bembe's support base is not all-inclusive, his support has already contributed to splitting and weakening the armed opposition and advances its goals for unity. From the perspective of the FCD leader, he has consolidated his position as Luanda's principal interlocutor for Cabinda. His reintegration into the Angolan government is almost complete and will allow him to reap the benefits that come with power in this oil-rich nation. Most importantly, this event has established a framework upon which to build peace. Even if an armed opposition remains a viable threat to the unity deal, the peace memorandum and its Cabindan allies will have created the institutions and communication channels that will allow for a necessary dialogue between Luanda and Cabinda.
While the power struggle for legitimacy within Cabindan civil society may not be over, the seeds for change have been planted. This lack of consensus within Cabinda's elite, however, will certainly threaten the implementation of the peace process. It is difficult to see how Luanda would agree to reducing its military presence in Cabinda if a viable armed force remains uncommitted to Bento Bembe's peace offering. The fact that Tiago's powerful FLEC openly criticises the unity deal should be viewed as a powerful source of instability in the short term. Interestingly enough, the voices opposed to Bento Bembe have not focused their attacks on the unity deal, but rather refer to the FCD leader's lack of legitimacy. This seems to indicate that civil society seems ready to accept offers on autonomy, just not when negotiated by a discredited Bento Bembe.
It should also be noted that the exact nature of the oil-revenue sharing scheme has not yet been defined and will certainly be an issue of the utmost contention. Cabinda produces approximately half of Angola's daily oil production. This represents a significant amount of money, and, with production set to increase rapidly in the coming years, will continue to be a source of a potential breakdown in the peace process.
It will be difficult to make an assessment of the impact that the recent ceasefire agreement will have on the security conditions in Cabinda until we are able to define the shape that the power struggle between the FCD leader and his detractors will take. What can be stated, however, is that the ceasefire will have a marginal effect on oil operations in Cabinda. The oil companies in the region are accustomed to warfare and have already instituted important security measures. If the ceasefire is successful it could allow oil companies to engage in land-drilling operations and could draw in further foreign investment for the development of Cabinda's fertile agricultural soil.