Re-election of Colombian president increases likelihood of final peace agreement in two-year outlook

Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos secured re-election on Sunday 16 June, by a comfortable margin of 5%, after having lost the first round to challenger Óscar Iván Zuluaga of the Democratic Centre (Centro Democrático), the political vehicle of former president Álvaro Uribe (2002–10). The latter, who remains one of the country's most popular politicians, was the main driving force behind Zuluaga's rapid surge in support. On election day Zuluaga captured 45% of the vote, which compares well with the 10% support recorded in early 2014. From there he went on to win the first round, with opinion polls suggesting until one week ago that he was on course to become the new president of Colombia.

Peace process focus

At stake in the election was the fate of the peace process with the left-wing insurgents of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), which Santos launched in October 2012. Santos took a gamble by making peace the main plank of his re-election campaign, an issue that has divided the country, given four previous failed attempts since the late 1980s. This, and the perception among a large segment of the population that the FARC cannot be trusted and that the rebels would only use the peace process to rearm, was used efficiently by Zuluaga to garner support for his candidacy.

A victory by Zuluaga, who was deeply critical of the peace negotiations, would have been a major reversal for the peace process, on which both the Santos government and the FARC have invested 18 months. Santos' efforts to sell the benefits of the peace process to a sceptical Colombian public have been constrained by the fact that the talks are being conducted without a ceasefire, on the basis that "nothing is agreed until all is agreed". This means that, while holding talks, the insurgents have continued their military activity, which increasingly relies on terrorism targeted at soft targets such as oil pipelines, electricity pylons, public infrastructure, as well as attacks on isolated municipalities.

The periodic spikes in terrorism activity by the FARC and ambushes of the security forces as a way to strengthen their bargaining power at the negotiating table in Havana, Cuba, contribute to exacerbating the scepticism among a large part of the population that the insurgents are not being sincere on their decision to reach a final settlement to the 50-year armed conflict.

Santos' crucial support from left-wing parties and labour unions

The recovery of Santos in the second round to secure a convincing victory is in large part explained by the last-minute support of the left, which obtained about 3 million votes in the first round. The main leaders of the Democratic Pole (Polo Democrático) and the Green Party (Partido Verde) announced that they could not remain neutral when the chances of reaching a final peace agreement was in real danger if Zuluaga was elected. To this was added the open support of two additional actors: the organised labour unions, which called on their members to vote for Santos; and the main business leaders, which a few days before the election came out in support of Santos and the peace process.

To reinforce his commitments to peace and show the electorate that his strategy was paying dividends, Santos left it until last week to let the country know that exploratory talks with the smaller Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), Colombia's second-largest insurgent group, had formally started. He also announced that the government and the FARC had started discussing a framework to identify and compensate all victims of the armed conflict. It is unclear how much these announcements had an impact on voters' intentions; however, they somehow helped to dispel claims by Zuluaga and his supporters that the peace process was in stalemate, without clear prospects for a final settlement.

Outlook and implications

Although re-election opens the door for Santos to move forward with the peace talks, the process is now entering a critical phase in which both sides have to agree to the last two points of the agenda: reparation of victims and a definitive ceasefire. This will be a complex process that will involve a string of forums in which victims of the conflict will have the opportunity to express their views.

Another controversial issue is that of how to deal with heinous crimes committed by the insurgents and whether FARC members accused of human rights abuses should be punished with prison sentences. Equally critical to the whole process is the fact that Santos has promised Colombians that any agreement reached with the insurgents will be ratified in a national referendum. The latter will provide Uribe's supporters, who now have a significant presence in Congress, with a fresh opportunity to mobilise the population against the peace process. The complexity of the negotiations suggests that Santos will spend at least the first two years of his second mandate on the efforts needed to reach a final agreement. Meanwhile, the intensity of the conflict is likely to remain unchanged for the rest of 2014, with both the FARC and ELN engaged in military operations against the security forces in order to boost their bargaining power at the negotiating table.

On the political front, Santos is expected to reward the left with a small number of cabinet posts in recognition of their critical support in the second round. Similarly, labour unions are already calling for the president to take on board their demands for better working conditions, as well as support for a more generous pension system. This will raise the risk of industrial action if the government fails to meet these demands.