Global Insight Perspective | |
Significance | Controversy and in-fighting have led to an approval delay for the IEEE 802.11n standard. |
Implications | The delay in rolling out the higher-speed IEEE 802.11n standard adds further confusion to the wireless network debacle, creating dilemmas for both equipment manufacturers and consumers. |
Outlook | The present IEEE 802.11b/g standards, and upcoming wireless standards such as HSDPA and WiMAX, will continue to serve the market, dampening the effect of the delay. |
Hopes that the latest Wi-Fi standard would be approved by mid-2007 have receded, with a new date sometime during 2008 seen as the most likely. Begun in January 2004, the IEEE 802.11n standardisation process was meant to enhance existing Wi-Fi network standards to offer indoor speeds of up to 540 Mbps—ten times the current 54 Mbps maximum of IEEE 802.11g wireless networks. By January 2006, the IEEE 802.11n Task Group, the body responsible for coordinating the standards review, submitted the first draft of the standard for approval by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
Since then, entrenched “factional” in-fighting, which almost derailed the first draft, has hindered further progress and, much to the chagrin of equipment vendors, stalled the second, which was due by July 2006. Equipment manufacturers and computer vendors such as Dell and Netgear have been expecting a favourable decision on the second draft in order to push IEEE 802.11n products they had already rushed out to market. Instead, the working group responsible for drafting the standard voted in May 2006 to delay the second draft, after receiving about 12,000 requests for changes to the first.
Although there has been no official confirmation of a change in the July 2007 approval date for the standard, palpable anxiety has enveloped the market as uncertainty grows over when the standard will be ready and, for the equipment vendors, over whether early-to-market products will comply with a potential 12,000 changes.
Outlook and Implications
- The Equipment Dilemma: For vendors and computer manufacturers, the delay adds to the growing confusion on what wireless technology to incorporate into laptops. Presently, there is an ongoing debate about the feasibility and viability of incorporating HSDPA and WiMAX to complement Wi-Fi in laptops. If uncertainty over Wi-Fi persists, manufacturers will be worried about the technical compatibility of the future IEEE 802.11n with other technologies, given that IEEE 802.11n uses multiple input, multiple output (MIMO) antenna technology, and there have been reports of interference between IEEE 802.11n and IEEE 802.11b/g.
The confusion is even more pertinent for the consumer. The fear of buying products based on a standard that is still hotly debated will harm sales and potentially trigger consumer apathy towards the eventual standard.
- Controversy Persists: The debate over standards in the technology industry is very much in the news these days, as exemplified by the battle for dominance in next-generation DVD formats between Sony's Blu-Ray and Toshiba's high-definition DVD (HD DVD). In reality, what is at stake is the quest to claim patent rights over the technology and the right to earn royalties from usage of the standard. For the telecoms market, Qualcomm's immense benefits from CDMA patents have raised the stakes for future standards agreements, leading to widespread disagreements and litigation. The company has commenced legal charges against Nokia, accusing the latter of violating its patent rights. In June 2006, the IEEE suspended the IEEE 802.20 standardisation review, after allegations that Qualcomm was trying to influence the process (see World: 20 June 2006: 802.20 Review Put on Hold).